Shuitu Baochi Xuebao, 2002 准确预报泥石流的发生、到达时间和规模,需要了解流域的基本情况以及泥石流形成的原因和条件。本文以云南省东川蒋家沟为例,以流域降雨产流量为基础,对泥石流暴发,到达时间及暴发规模的预报作了系统的研究。以10min降雨雨强为基本依据,计算10min降雨的产流及形成径流的单宽流量,从而预报泥石流的发生,由此可以计算泥石流的运动速度、预报泥石流的到达时间。以10min激发降雨的产流及形成径流总量,结合泥石流中泥沙体积浓度和流域堵塞系数,计算出泥石流总量,从而预报泥石流的发生规模。
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