Network analysis of ballast-mediated species transfer reveals important introduction and dispersal patterns in the Arctic [PDF]
arXiv, 2020 Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk of harmful non-native marine species being introduced into this critical region will increase unless policy and ...
arxiv
Arctic curves of the six-vertex model on generic domains: the Tangent Method [PDF]
J. Stat. Phys. 164 (2016) 1488, 2016 We revisit the problem of determining the Arctic curve in the six-vertex model with domain wall boundary conditions. We describe an alternative method, by which we recover the previously conjectured analytic expression in the square domain. We adapt the method to work for a large class of domains, and for other models exhibiting limit shape phenomena ...
arxiv +1 more source
The arctic curve of the domain-wall six-vertex model [PDF]
J. Stat. Phys. 138 (2010), 662-700, 2009 The problem of the form of the `arctic' curve of the six-vertex model with domain wall boundary conditions in its disordered regime is addressed. It is well-known that in the scaling limit the model exhibits phase-separation, with regions of order and disorder sharply separated by a smooth curve, called the arctic curve.
arxiv +1 more source
A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting [PDF]
arXiv, 2021 We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the ...
arxiv
Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice [PDF]
arXiv, 2022 Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions after the actual environmental tipping points are triggered.
arxiv
Bayesian Inference of Spatio-Temporal Changes of Arctic Sea Ice [PDF]
arXiv, 2020 Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two decades, where a latent dynamic spatio-temporal Gaussian process is used to model the data-dependence through a logit ...
arxiv
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections [PDF]
arXiv, 2019 The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical
arxiv
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach [PDF]
arXiv, 2020 The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different measures of Arctic sea ice extent have been made available based on differing algorithmic transformations of the raw ...
arxiv
Arctic Sea Ice State Estimation From Thermodynamic PDE Model [PDF]
arXiv, 2019 Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However, measuring the complete temperature profile is not feasible within and throughout the Arctic icecap.
arxiv
Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health in the Border Areas of Euro-Arctic Barents Region: A Review of 30-Year Russian–Norwegian Research Collaboration Outcomes [PDF]
, 2020 Valery Chashchin +8 more
openalex +1 more source