Assessing the Impact of Market Microstructure Noise and Random Jumps on the Relative Forecasting Performance of Option-Implied and Returns-Based Volatility [PDF]
This paper presents a comprehensive empirical evaluation of option-implied and returns-based forecasts of volatility, in which new developments related to the impact on measured volatility of market microstructure noise and random jumps are explicitly ...
Andrew Reidy +2 more
core
Forecasting Time Series with Long Memory and Level Shifts, A Bayesian Approach [PDF]
Recent studies have showed that it is troublesome, in practice, to distinguish between long memory and nonlinear processes. Therefore, it is of obvious interest to try to capture both features of long memory and non-linearity into a single time series ...
Silvestro Di Sanzo
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Fractal and FractionalThis paper introduces hybrid models designed to analyze daily and weekly bitcoin return spanning the periods from 18 July 2010 to 28 December 2023 for daily data, and from 18 July 2010 to 24 December 2023 for weekly data. Firstly, the fractal and chaotic
Melike Bildirici +2 more
doaj +1 more source
A note on Michelacci and Zaffaroni, long memory, and time series of economic growth [PDF]
long memory, economic ...
B. Verspagen, G. Silverberg
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Time Analysis of an Emergent Infection Spread Among Healthcare Workers: Lessons Learned from Early Wave of SARS-CoV-2. [PDF]
Int J Gen Med, 2022 Leme PAF +8 more
europepmc +1 more source
Estimation and Prediction of Commodity Returns Using Long Memory Volatility Models
RisksModelling the volatility of commodity prices and creating more reliable models for estimating and forecasting commodity price returns are crucial.
Kisswell Basira +4 more
doaj +1 more source
The Use of Weather Variables in the Modeling of Demand for Electricity in One of the Regions in the Southern Poland [PDF]
The main objective of the paper is the verification of usefulness of the ARFIMA-FIGARCH class models in the description of tendencies in the energy consumption in a selected region of the southern Poland taking into consideration weather variables ...
Aneta Wlodarczyk, Marcin Zawada
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Forecasting commodity prices: empirical evidence using deep learning tools. [PDF]
Ann Oper Res, 2023 Ben Ameur H +4 more
europepmc +1 more source
The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models [PDF]
Recent research has focused on the links between long memory and structural change, stressing the long memory properties that may arise in models with parameter changes. In this paper, we contribute to this research by comparing the forecasting abilities
Luis F. Martins, Vasco J. Gabriel
core
Temporal Structure in Sensorimotor Variability: A Stable Trait, But What For? [PDF]
Comput Brain Behav, 2023 Perquin MN +3 more
europepmc +1 more source