Sample splitting and assessing goodness-of-fit of time series. [PDF]
BiometrikaDavis RA, Fernandes L.
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Bayesian inverse ensemble forecasting for COVID‐19
Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.Abstract Variations in strains of COVID‐19 have a significant impact on the rate of surges and on the accuracy of forecasts of the epidemic dynamics. The primary goal for this article is to quantify the effects of varying strains of COVID‐19 on ensemble forecasts of individual “surges.” By modelling the disease dynamics with an SIR model, we solve the ...
Kimberly Kroetch, Don Estep
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Fixed-Domain Asymptotics Under Vecchia's Approximation of Spatial Process Likelihoods. [PDF]
Stat SinZhang L, Tang W, Banerjee S.
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A goodness‐of‐fit test for regression models with discrete outcomes
Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.Abstract Regression models are often used to analyze discrete outcomes, but classical goodness‐of‐fit tests such as those based on the deviance or Pearson's statistic can be misleading or have little power in this context. To address this issue, we propose a new test, inspired by the work of Czado et al.
Lu Yang +2 more
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Asymptotic theory of in-context learning by linear attention. [PDF]
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S ALu YM +4 more
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Fourier Mass Lower Bounds for Batchelor‐Regime Passive Scalars
Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Batchelor predicted that a passive scalar ψν$\psi ^\nu$ with diffusivity ν$\nu$, advected by a smooth fluid velocity, should typically have Fourier mass distributed as |ψ̂ν|2(k)≈|k|−d$|\widehat{\psi }^\nu |^2(k) \approx |k|^{-d}$ for |k|≪ν−1/2$|k| \ll \nu ^{-1/2}$.
William Cooperman, Keefer Rowan
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Tree Height and the Asymptotic Mean of the Colijn-Plazzotta Rank of Unlabeled Binary Rooted Trees. [PDF]
Bull Math BiolDevroye L +3 more
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Existence of Full Replica Symmetry Breaking for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick Model at Low Temperature
Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We verify the existence of full replica symmetry breaking (FRSB) for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick (SK) model and determine the structure of its Parisi measure slightly beyond the high temperature regime. More specifically, we prove that the support of the Parisi measure for the SK model consists of an interval starting at the origin slightly ...
Yuxin Zhou
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Probability of entering an orthant by correlated fractional Brownian motion with drift: exact asymptotics. [PDF]
Extremes (Boston)Dȩbicki K, Ji L, Novikov S.
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The Huang–Yang Formula for the Low‐Density Fermi Gas: Upper Bound
Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the ground state energy of a gas of spin 1/2$1/2$ fermions with repulsive short‐range interactions. We derive an upper bound that agrees, at low density ϱ$\varrho$, with the Huang–Yang conjecture. The latter captures the first three terms in an asymptotic low‐density expansion, and in particular the Huang–Yang correction term of order
Emanuela L. Giacomelli +3 more
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