CAESar: Conditional Autoregressive Expected Shortfall [PDF]
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses this by providing the conditional expectation of such exceedances, offering a more comprehensive measure of tail ...
arxiv
Factors Contributing to the Pre-Elimination of Malaria from Hainan Island, China, 1986-2009. [PDF]
Sun D+5 more
europepmc +1 more source
Selecting between autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models: An empirical application to the volatility of stock returns in Peru [PDF]
Gabriel Rodrı́guez
openalex +1 more source
Assessing Financial Stability in Turbulent Times: A Study of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Type Value-at-Risk Model Performance in Thailand’s Transportation Sector during COVID-19 [PDF]
Danai Likitratcharoen+1 more
openalex +1 more source
Spatial Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models
Takaki Sato, Yasumasa Matsuda
openaire +3 more sources
Interval Forecasts for Gas Prices in the Face of Structural Breaks -- Statistical Models vs. Neural Networks [PDF]
Reliable gas price forecasts are an essential information for gas and energy traders, for risk managers and also economists. However, ahead of the war in Ukraine Europe began to suffer from substantially increased and volatile gas prices which culminated in the aftermath of the North Stream 1 explosion.
arxiv
Automatic detection of micro-emboli by means of a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. [PDF]
Jean‐Marc Girault+2 more
openalex +2 more sources
GARCH option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components: A novel framework ensuring positive variance [PDF]
Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct components. Empirical studies indicate that the model developed by CJOW outperforms widely-used single-component ...
arxiv
Forecasting cryptocurrency returns using classical statistical and deep learning techniques
The emergence of cryptocurrencies has generated enthusiasm and concern in the modern global economy. However, their high volatility, erratic price fluctuations, and tendency to exhibit price bubbles have made investors cautious about investing in them ...
Nehal N. AlMadany+3 more
doaj
Nonparametric Test for Volatility in Clustered Multiple Time Series. [PDF]
Barrios EB, Redondo PVT.
europepmc +1 more source