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Implicit and explicit processing on base rate neglect problems
Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 2023Base rate reasoning as assessed on Base rate neglect (BRN) Tasks has been studied extensively, with a sizable body of findings indicating that both logical (base rate) and belief-based (case description) processing contribute to responses on the task.
Robert B Ricco +4 more
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Base Rate Neglect Under Ambiguity
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence.
Yiangyan Li, Jianying Qiu, Utz Weitzel
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Teaching Pigeons to Commit Base-Rate Neglect
Psychological Science, 2005Whereas humans display base-rate neglect in a behavioral analogue of the base-rate problem, pigeons have been shown to behave optimally in a comparable task, appropriately weighting base-rate and case-cue information. Previous studies have shown that prior experience may interfere with optimal decisions for human subjects, a result consistent with the
Edmund, Fantino +2 more
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2021
The likelihood of a diagnosis in a patient is directly related to the likelihood of that diagnosis in the general population. Rare diagnoses occur rarely and common diagnoses occur commonly. This is why every medical student has heard the saying, “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” This sage advice (albeit not applicable in Africa ...
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The likelihood of a diagnosis in a patient is directly related to the likelihood of that diagnosis in the general population. Rare diagnoses occur rarely and common diagnoses occur commonly. This is why every medical student has heard the saying, “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” This sage advice (albeit not applicable in Africa ...
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Base-rate respect meets affect neglect
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractWhile improving the theoretical account of base-rate neglect, Barbey & Sloman's (B&S's) target article suffers from affect neglect by failing to consider the fundamental role of emotional processes in “real world” decisions. We illustrate how affective influences are fundamental to decision making, and discuss how the dual process model
Paul Whitney +2 more
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Natural sampling and base-rate neglect
European Journal of Social Psychology, 1998Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D).
Tilmann Betsch +3 more
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The paradoxical effects of time pressure on base rate neglect
Cognition, 2023Base rate neglect refers to the well-documented tendency for people to primarily rely on diagnostic information to identify event probabilities while discounting information about relative probabilities (base rates). It is often postulated that using base rate information requires some form of working memory intensive processes. However, recent studies
Henry, Markovits, Gaetan, Béghin
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Base-rate neglect and coarse probability representation
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007AbstractWe believe that when assessing the likelihood of uncertain events, statistically unsophisticated people utilize a coarse internal scale that only has a limited number of categories. The success of the nested sets hypothesis may lie in its ability to provide an appropriate set structure of the problem by reducing the computational demands.
Yanlong Sun, Hongbin Wang
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Memory mechanisms in pigeons: Evidence of base-rate neglect.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, 2002In delayed matching to sample, once acquired, pigeons presumably choose comparisons according to their memory for (the strength of) the sample. When memory for the sample is sufficiently weak, comparison choice should depend on the history of reinforcement associated with each of the comparison stimuli.
Thomas R, Zentall, Tricia S, Clement
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BASE RATE NEGLECT FOR THE WEALTH OF INTERACTING PEOPLE [PDF]
Advances in Complex Systems, 2010 Previous research investigating base rate neglect as a bias in human information processing has focused on isolated individuals. This study complements this research by showing that in settings of interacting individuals, especially in settings of social learning, where individuals can learn from one another, base rate neglect can increase a population'
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