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The motivated use and neglect of base rates

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007
AbstractEgo-justifying, group-justifying, and system-justifying motivations contribute to base-rate respect. People tend to neglect (and use) base rates when doing so allows them to draw desired conclusions about matters such as their health, the traits of their in-groups, and the fairness of the social system.
Eric Luis Uhlmann   +2 more
openaire   +1 more source

Task representations, strategy variability, and base-rate neglect.

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 1999
The authors present a new model called RCCL (pronounced "ReCyCLe"; Represent the task, Construct a set of action strategies consistent with the task representation, Choose from among those strategies according to their success rates, and Learn new success rates for the strategies based on experience).
Marsha C. Lovett, Christian D. Schunn
openaire   +1 more source

Waiting for the bus: When base-rates refuse to be neglected

Cognition, 2007
The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P.
Teigen, K.H., Keren, G.B.
openaire   +3 more sources

Physicians neglect base rates, and it matters

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1996
AbstractA recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently, depending on whether it was presented early or late in the case. Although these adult reasoners might do better if given hints through talk of relative frequencies,
openaire   +1 more source

Base-rate neglect in ALCOVE: A critical reevaluation.

Psychological Review, 1995
A recent hybrid model of categorization (Attention Learning Covering Map [ALCOVE]; J. K. Kruschke, 1992) has combined the most desirable properties of exemplar models with a connectionist architecture and learning rule. A critically important property of ALCOVE is its apparent ability to account for base-rate neglect, a phenomenon beyond the purview of
openaire   +1 more source

Base-rate neglect

2022
Gordon Pennycook   +2 more
openaire   +1 more source

Adaptive redundancy, denominator neglect, and the base-rate fallacy

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2007
AbstractHomo sapiens have evolved a dual-process cognitive architecture that is adaptive but prone to systematic errors. Fuzzy-trace theory predicts that nested or overlapping class-inclusion relations create processing interference, resulting in denominator neglect: behaving as if one ignores marginal denominators in a 2 × 2 table.
openaire   +1 more source

Base rate neglect for the wealth of populations [PDF]

open access: possible, 2006
Base rate neglect has been shown to be a very robust bias in human information processing. It has also been show to be ecologically rational in some environments. However, when arguing about base rate neglect usually isolated individuals are considered.
openaire  

Cancer Statistics, 2021

Ca-A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, 2021
Rebecca L Siegel, Kimberly D Miller
exaly  

Cancer statistics, 2020

Ca-A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, 2020
Rebecca L Siegel, Kimberly D Miller
exaly  

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