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A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle
, 1989This paper models occasional, discrete shifts in the growth rate of a nonstationary series. Algorithms for inferring these unobserved shifts are presented, a byproduct of which permits estimation of parameters by maximum likelihood.
James D. Hamilton
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This note outlines and discusses some of the strands in the post-Keynesian literature on business cycles. Most post-Keynesians have focused on endogenously generated cycles, but the mechanism varies: some focus on the goods market, others on financial markets, the labor market, or political intervention. The merits of formal modeling of the cycles have
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Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1930
(1930). Is There a Business Cycle? Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol. 25, No. 170, pp. 207-209.
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(1930). Is There a Business Cycle? Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol. 25, No. 170, pp. 207-209.
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than ...
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine+2 more
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Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than ...
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine+2 more
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Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?
, 2015The downturn of 2008–09 has confirmed that: (i) housing is the single most critical part of the U.S. business cycle, (ii) the proper conduct of monetary policy needs to be cognizant that choices made at one point in time affect the options later, and ...
Edward E. Leamer
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