Results 51 to 60 of about 2,059 (191)

Point and Risk estImation Using an enSemble of Models for Nowcasting: PRISM‐Now

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose PRISM‐Now, a novel ensemble forecasting system for near‐term GDP projection. Recognizing that relevant economic information evolves over time, we treat forecasts from multiple base models as draws from a mixture distribution of “good” and “bad” estimates, whose composition changes continuously and cannot be identified ex ante.
Beomseok Seo, Hyungbae Cho, Dongjae Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Brexit and Its Impact on EU Financial Markets

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of Brexit on volatility spillovers across the EU countries. We introduce a Brexit intensity measure that assigns an intensity score reflective of the financial markets' reaction to the events that occurred as Brexit negotiations began to unfold.
Marwan Izzeldin, Gulnur Muradoglu, Vasileios Pappas, Sheeja Sivaprasad   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Extending the hyper‐logistic model to the random setting: New theoretical results with real‐world applications

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, EarlyView.
We develop a full randomization of the classical hyper‐logistic growth model by obtaining closed‐form expressions for relevant quantities of interest, such as the first probability density function of its solution, the time until a given fixed population is reached, and the population at the inflection point.
Juan Carlos Cortés, Ana Navarro‐Quiles, Sorina Madalina Sferle   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Innovative Methods of Constructing Strict and Strong Fuzzy Negations, Fuzzy Implications and New Classes of Copulas

Mathematics
This paper presents new classes of strong fuzzy negations, fuzzy implications and Copulas. It begins by presenting two theorems with function classes involving the construction of strong fuzzy negations.
Panagiotis Georgiou Mangenakis, Basil Papadopoulos   +1 more
doaj   +1 more source

Vine copulas structures modeling on Russian stock market

Discrete and Continuous Models and Applied Computational Science, 2019
Pair-copula constructions have proven to be a useful tool in statistical modeling, particularly in the field of finance. The copula-based approach can be used to choose a model that describes the dependence structure and marginal behaviour of the data in
Eugeny Yu. Shchetinin
doaj   +1 more source

Bivariate postprocessing of wind vectors

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We introduce three novel bivariate postprocessing approaches and analyze their performance for joint postprocessing of bivariate wind‐vector components in Germany. Bivariate vine‐copula‐based models, a bivariate gradient‐boosted version of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and a bivariate distributional regression network (DRN) are compared with
Ferdinand Buchner, David Jobst, Annette Möller, Claudia Czado   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

On comprehensive families of copulas involving the three basic copulas and transformations thereof

Dependence Modeling
Comprehensive families of copulas including the three basic copulas (at least as limit cases) are useful tools to model countermonotonicity, independence, and comonotonicity of pairs of random variables on the same probability space. In this contribution,
Saminger-Platz Susanne, Kolesárová Anna, Šeliga Adam, Mesiar Radko, Klement Erich Peter   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

On Unit-Burr Distorted Copulas

AppliedMath
This paper introduces a new unit-Burr distortion function constructed via a transformation of the Burr random variable. The distortion can be applied to existing base copulas to create new copula families.
Fadal Abdullah A. Aldhufairi, Jungsywan H. Sepanski   +1 more
doaj   +1 more source

A Compendium of Copulas

Statistica, 2018
Copulas are used to specify dependence between two or more random variables. The last few years have seen a surge of developments of parametric models for copulas.
Saralees Nadarajah, Emmanuel Afuecheta, Stephen Chan   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Statistical post‐processing of operational dual‐resolution wind‐speed ensemble forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The performance of raw and post‐processed 50‐member medium‐ and 100‐member extended‐range 10‐m wind‐speed forecasts of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and their various dual‐resolution combinations is investigated. Results show that post‐processing improves skill and reduces the differences between the various configurations ...
Sándor Baran, Mária Lakatos
wiley   +1 more source