Results 191 to 200 of about 207,307 (281)

Information‐based probabilistic verification scores and predictability measures: Seasonal prediction examples

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Schematic of the computation of the logarithmic score and information gain. In panel (a), ensemble predictions (orange circles), observational reference (red circle), and historical observations (blue circles) are shown. An ensemble prediction probability distribution (orange line) and a climatological probability distribution (blue line) are also ...
Yuhei Takaya   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Land data assimilation of satellite‐based surface soil moisture: Impact on atmospheric simulations over the contiguous United States

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Soil Moisture Active Passive soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into a land surface model and the resulting land reanalysis product is used to initialise the land component of coupled land‐atmosphere experiments. We show that the local impact of land data assimilation on the atmosphere is influenced by two factors: the magnitude by which it ...
Zdenko Heyvaert   +6 more
wiley   +1 more source

Ensemble Kalman filter in latent space using a variational autoencoder pair

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The use of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in strongly nonlinear or constrained atmospheric, oceanographic, or sea‐ice models can be challenging. Applying the EnKF in the latent space of a variational autoencoder (VAE) ensures that the ensemble members satisfy the balances and constraints present in the model.
Ivo Pasmans   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study explores how the atmospheric state at initialisation creates windows of opportunity for improving week 3 forecasts of weather regime activity. Greenland blocking activity increases following Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 7, 8, and 1 and weak stratospheric polar vortex states, revealing patterns exploitable by statistical models.
Fabian Mockert   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

A pilot variational coupled reanalysis based on the CESAM climate model

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Variational data assimilation of in‐situ and satellite ocean data and reanalysis atmospheric data into an intermediate complexity Earth system model is possible by adjusting the surface fluxes and internal model parameters. This pilot application requires nearly complete information on the atmospheric state for synchronization.
Armin Köhl   +6 more
wiley   +1 more source

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