Results 131 to 140 of about 57,995 (262)

A structurally localized ensemble Kalman filtering approach

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We derive an inherently localized ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) approach, avoiding the need for any auxiliary localization technique. The idea is to first use the variational Bayesian optimization to approximate the (continuous) state analysis probability density function (pdf) by a product of independent marginal pdfs corresponding to small ...
Boujemaa Ait‐El‐Fquih   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

NowPrecip 2: Precipitation nowcasting in the complex terrain of Switzerland. Part II: Verification

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
In this work we present the verification of the NowPrecip precipitation nowcasting systems (version 1 and version 2). Using 3.5 years of data over the period 2020–2023, their performance is compared with PySTEPS and the ICON numerical weather prediction ensemble by computing deterministic and probabilistic metrics.
A. Ntoumos   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

Are we misdiagnosing ensemble forecast reliability? On the insufficiency of spread–error and rank‐based reliability metrics

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We demonstrate that the spread–error relationship, rank histogram, and continuous rank probability score reliability component can falsely indicate reliability under climatological variance biases, yielding ensemble members that are overly or insufficiently extreme.
Arlan Dirkson, Mark Buehner
wiley   +1 more source

Diagnosing the 11‐year solar cycle's influence on the East Atlantic pattern

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the East Atlantic pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. A statistically significant NAO response to the solar cycle is seen in late winter at lag 0 years.
Stergios Misios   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Projections dataset of Key Climate Variables for Senegal. [PDF]

open access: yesSci Data
Mbengue A   +6 more
europepmc   +1 more source

A multimodel intercomparison study of variable‐resolution global models with grid refinement over the Arctic and Antarctic

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We document the protocol and first results from the first ever coordinated multimodel variable‐resolution experiment set with refinement over the polar regions. We find that the refinement generally yields model‐dependent effects. The most consistent improvement is an amelioration of the upper‐level cold bias in the polar regions that translates into ...
Lise Seland Graff   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

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