Results 211 to 220 of about 267,812 (289)

On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Why Do Hedgers Hedge? The Role of Ambiguity

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether ambiguity influences hedging behavior in commodity futures markets. Using high‐frequency crude oil futures data, distinct measures of risk and ambiguity are linked to weekly hedging positions from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Fiona Höllmann
wiley   +1 more source

Improving Implied Volatility Forecasts for American Options Using Neural Networks

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper explores the application of neural networks to improve pricing of American options. Focusing on both American and European options on the S&P 100 index from January 2016 to August 2023, we integrate neural networks to model the difference between market‐implied and model‐implied volatilities derived from the Black‐Scholes and Heston
Haitong Jiang, Emese Lazar, Miriam Marra
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting Natural Gas Futures Price Volatility of the United States: National Versus State‐Level Climate Concern Indexes

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper uses GARCH‐MIDAS to predict US natural gas futures volatility using national and state‐level Climate Concern Indexes (CCIs). We find that both national and state‐level CCIs positively affect price volatility. Notably, models using state‐level data—specifically those utilizing least‐squares (LS) weighting combinations—surpass the ...
Afees A. Salisu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

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