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Overcoming Dilution of Collision Probability in Satellite Conjunction Analysis via Confidence Distribution. [PDF]

Entropy (Basel)
In satellite conjunction analysis, dilution of collision probability has been recognized as a significant deficiency of probabilistic inference. A recent study identified the false confidence problem as another limitation and suggested a possible causal ...
Lee H, Lee Y.
europepmc   +2 more sources

On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution [PDF]

, 2000
The possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed.
Bityukov, S. I., Krasnikov, N. V., Taperechkina, V. A.   +2 more
core   +6 more sources

Confidence distribution (CD) -- distribution estimator of a parameter

, 2007
The notion of confidence distribution (CD), an entirely frequentist concept, is in essence a Neymanian interpretation of Fisher's Fiducial distribution. It contains information related to every kind of frequentist inference.
Singh, Kesar, Strawderman, William E., Xie, Minge   +2 more
core   +3 more sources

Bayesian Confidence Bands for a Distribution Function [PDF]

The Annals of Statistics, 1978
A set of recurrences is developed for computing the probability content of any prior or posterior confidence bands for a distribution function assuming the parameter of the prior Dirichlet process known. When the prior parameter is unknown and is estimated from the sample, nonparametric estimates of the probability content of the posterior bands are ...
M. Breth
openalex   +4 more sources

Confidence disc and square for Cauchy distributions

Ukrains’kyi Matematychnyi Zhurnal, 2021
UDC 519.21 We  construct a confidence region of parameters for a sample of size N from the Cauchy distributed random variables. Although Cauchy distribution has two parameters, a location parameter μ ∈ ℝ and a scale parameter σ > 0 , we infer them simultaneously by regarding them as a single complex parameter γ : = μ
Yuichi Akaoka, Kazuki Okamura, Yoshiki Otobe   +2 more
openalex   +4 more sources

Bootstrap confidence intervals in mixtures of discrete distributions [PDF]

Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 2008
The problem of building bootstrap confidence intervals for small probabilities with count data is addressed. The law of the independent observations is assumed to be a mixture of a given family of power series distributions. The mixing distribution is estimated by nonparametric maximum likelihood and the corresponding mixture is used for resampling. We
Dimitris Karlis, Valentin Patilea
openalex   +6 more sources

Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments [PDF]

Cognition, 2015
We examine which aspects of the confidence distributions - its shape, its bias toward higher or lower values, and its ability to distinguish correct from erred trials - are idiosyncratic of the who (individual specificity), the when (variability across days) and the what (task specificity).
Joaquín Ais, Ariel Zylberberg, Pablo Barttfeld, Mariano Sigman   +3 more
openalex   +5 more sources

On Using Standard Deviation or Standard Error of the Mean. [PDF]

Iran J Med Sci
The mean value is commonly used as a measure of central tendency. It is frequently reported along with either the standard deviation (SD) or the standard error of the mean (SEM).
Habibzadeh F.
europepmc   +2 more sources

Confidence in confidence distributions! [PDF]

Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2020
The recent article ‘Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem’ (Balch et al . 2019, Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem. Proc. R. Soc. A 475 , 20180565) points to certain difficulties with Bayesian analysis when used for models for
Céline Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort, Tore Schweder   +2 more
openaire   +4 more sources

Confidence Distributions for FIC Scores [PDF]

Econometrics, 2020
When using the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) for assessing and ranking candidate models with respect to how well they do for a given estimation task, it is customary to produce a so-called FIC plot. This plot has the different point estimates along the y-axis and the root-FIC scores on the x-axis, these being the estimated root-mean-square scores.
Céline Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort
openaire   +6 more sources