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Overcoming Dilution of Collision Probability in Satellite Conjunction Analysis via Confidence Distribution [PDF]
EntropyIn satellite conjunction analysis, dilution of collision probability has been recognized as a significant deficiency of probabilistic inference. A recent study identified the false confidence problem as another limitation and suggested a possible causal ...
Hangbin Lee, Youngjo Lee
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Bayesian Confidence Bands for a Distribution Function [PDF]
The Annals of Statistics, 1978 A set of recurrences is developed for computing the probability content of any prior or posterior confidence bands for a distribution function assuming the parameter of the prior Dirichlet process known. When the prior parameter is unknown and is estimated from the sample, nonparametric estimates of the probability content of the posterior bands are ...
M. Breth
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Confidence disc and square for Cauchy distributions
Ukrains’kyi Matematychnyi Zhurnal, 2021 UDC 519.21 We construct a confidence region of parameters for a sample of size N from the Cauchy distributed random variables. Although Cauchy distribution has two parameters, a location parameter μ ∈ ℝ and a scale parameter σ > 0 , we infer them simultaneously by regarding them as a single complex parameter γ : = μ
Yuichi Akaoka +2 more
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Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments [PDF]
Cognition, 2015 We examine which aspects of the confidence distributions - its shape, its bias toward higher or lower values, and its ability to distinguish correct from erred trials - are idiosyncratic of the who (individual specificity), the when (variability across days) and the what (task specificity).
Joaquín Ais +3 more
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Confidence in confidence distributions! [PDF]
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2020 The recent article ‘Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem’ (Balch et al . 2019, Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem. Proc. R. Soc. A 475 , 20180565) points to certain difficulties with Bayesian analysis when used for models for
Céline Cunen +2 more
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Confidence Distributions for FIC Scores [PDF]
Econometrics, 2020 When using the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) for assessing and ranking candidate models with respect to how well they do for a given estimation task, it is customary to produce a so-called FIC plot. This plot has the different point estimates along the y-axis and the root-FIC scores on the x-axis, these being the estimated root-mean-square scores.
Céline Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort
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Predicting with Confidence on Unseen Distributions [PDF]
2021 IEEE/CVF International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV), 2021 ICCV Camera ready; new scatter plots in supplementary ...
Guillory, Devin +4 more
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Generalized Confidence Intervals for Zero-Inflated Pareto Distribution
Mathematics, 2021 This paper considers interval estimations for the mean of Pareto distribution with excess zeros. Three approaches for interval estimation are proposed based on fiducial generalized pivotal quantities (FGPQs), respectively.
Xiao Wang, Xinmin Li
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Journal of Low Power Electronics and Applications, 2023 Two multi-parameter distributions, namely the Pearson type IV and metalog distributions, are discussed and suggested as alternatives to the normal distribution for modelling path delay data that determines the maximum clock frequency (FMAX) of a ...
Miikka Runolinna +4 more
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Approximate Confidence Distribution Computing
The New England Journal of Statistics in Data Science, 2023 Approximate confidence distribution computing (ACDC) offers a new take on the rapidly developing field of likelihood-free inference from within a frequentist framework. The appeal of this computational method for statistical inference hinges upon the concept of a confidence distribution, a special type of estimator which is defined with respect to the ...
Thornton, Suzanne, Li, W., Xie, M.
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