Unconventional Confidence Bands in the Literature on the Government Spending Multiplier
Econ Journal Watch, 2015 Macroeconomists have applied many versions of vector autoregression to measuring the size of the government spending multiplier. Very frequently in the literature on that multiplier, the statistical significance of results is held to an unconventionally low standard of one standard error.
Ryan Murphy
openaire +2 more sources
Construction of Non-asymptotic Confidence Sets in 2-Wasserstein Space [PDF]
arXiv, 2017 In this paper, we consider a probabilistic setting where the probability measures are considered to be random objects. We propose a procedure of construction non-asymptotic confidence sets for empirical barycenters in 2-Wasserstein space and develop the idea further to construction of a non-parametric two-sample test that is then applied to the ...
Ebert, Johannes +2 more
arxiv +2 more sources
Residue depletion profile and withdrawal interval estimation of ivermectin in eggs following topical administration of injectable ivermectin to domestic chickens (Gallus domesticus): a pilot study [PDF]
Frontiers in Veterinary ScienceIntroductionTopical ivermectin is commonly prescribed extra-label for the control of mite infestations in backyard chicken flocks in the US.MethodsDomestic laying hens (n = 8; 78 weeks of age, weight 1.7–2.2 kg) were administered injectable ivermectin ...
Melissa A. Mercer +4 more
doaj +2 more sources
Provably Efficient Generalized Lagrangian Policy Optimization for Safe Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning [PDF]
Conference on Learning for Dynamics & Control, 2023 We examine online safe multi-agent reinforcement learning using constrained Markov games in which agents compete by maximizing their expected total rewards under a constraint on expected total utilities.
Dongsheng Ding +4 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Keynesian Without the Policy: Why the Business Cycle is all about Business Confidence and Finance
Journal of Economic Analysis, 2023 Many of Keynes´s ideas and concepts are proven correct in this paper. The demand side, mainly business investments, drives the economy. Business firms steer the business cycle via profit expectations and animal spirits. Injections to and withdrawals from
Karl Bergström
semanticscholar +1 more source
Statistical Inference For Ultrahigh Dimensional Location Parameter Based On Spatial Median [PDF]
Statistica sinica, 2023 Motivated by the widely used geometric median-of-means estimator in machine learning, this paper studies statistical inference for ultrahigh dimensionality location parameter based on the sample spatial median under a general multivariate model ...
Guanghui Cheng +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks
The Review of Economic Studies, 2020 We revisit the question of why shifts in aggregate demand drive business cycles. Our theory combines intertemporal substitution in production with rational confusion, or bounded rationality, in consumption and investment.
G. Angeletos, C. Lian
semanticscholar +1 more source
UNIFORMLY VALID POST-REGULARIZATION CONFIDENCE REGIONS FOR MANY FUNCTIONAL PARAMETERS IN Z-ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK. [PDF]
Annals of Statistics, 2015 In this paper, we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for p ˜ potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where p ˜ is potentially much larger than the sample size of ...
A. Belloni +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Multiplier bootstrap for quantile regression: non-asymptotic theory under random design
Information and Inference A Journal of the IMA, 2020 This paper establishes non-asymptotic concentration bound and Bahadur representation for the quantile regression estimator and its multiplier bootstrap counterpart in the random design setting.
Xiaoou Pan, Wen-Xin Zhou
semanticscholar +1 more source
Bootstrap inference for quantile treatment effects in randomized experiments with matched pairs [PDF]
, 2020 This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs, highlighting the difficulties that arise ...
JIANG, Liang +3 more
core +4 more sources