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COVID-19 and the Credit Cycle: 2020 Revisited and 2021 Outlook
Social Science Research Network, 2021This study continues the author's examination and forecasts as to the impact of Covid-19 on the US credit cycle after one and a half years since the pandemic first began.
Edward I. Altman
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Review of Economic Studies, 2007 Summary: A bank determines whether potential borrowers are creditworthy, that is, whether they meet the bank's credit or lending standards. In making this determination, each bank is in competition with other banks, but without knowing the competitor banks' credit standards.
G. B. Gorton, Ping He
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International Economic Review, 2004 Theoretical studies have shown that under unorthodox assumptions on preferences and production technologies, collateral constraints can act as a powerful amplification and propagation mechanism of exogenous shocks. We investigate whether or not this result holds under more standard assumptions.
Juan Cordoba, Marla Ripoll
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Bank profitability leads the credit cycle. An increase in return on equity of the banking sector predicts rising credit-to-GDP ratios in a panel of 17 advanced economies spanning the years 1870 to 2015. However, increases in profitability also predict elevated crisis likelihood a few years later.
Björn Richter, Kaspar Zimmermann
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Bank profitability leads the credit cycle. An increase in return on equity of the banking sector predicts rising credit-to-GDP ratios in a panel of 17 advanced economies spanning the years 1870 to 2015. However, increases in profitability also predict elevated crisis likelihood a few years later.
Björn Richter, Kaspar Zimmermann
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The Economic Journal, 2015
Credit cycles have been a characteristic of advanced economies for over 100 years. On average, a sustained pick-up in the ratio of credit to GDP has been highly correlated with banking crises. The boom phases of the cycle are characterised by large deviations in credit from trend.
D. Aikman, A. Haldane, B. Nelson
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Credit cycles have been a characteristic of advanced economies for over 100 years. On average, a sustained pick-up in the ratio of credit to GDP has been highly correlated with banking crises. The boom phases of the cycle are characterised by large deviations in credit from trend.
D. Aikman, A. Haldane, B. Nelson
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Household Expectations and the Credit Cycle
Social Science Research Network, 2019The paper investigates the role of expectations in the household credit cycle. First, I provide empirical evidence that survey data on expectations have strong predictive power for the dynamics of household debt.
Cristina Angelico
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A credit cycle model with market sentiments
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2019This paper extends Matsuyama's endogenous credit cycle model to account for recent findings on the role of credit market sentiments. The benchmark model uses a parsimonious financial friction specification in the form of a pledgeability parameter, which ...
I. Kubin +3 more
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Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation [PDF]
International Journal of Central Banking, 2005 This paper finds strong empirical support of a positive, although quite lagged, relationship between rapid credit growth and loan losses. Moreover, it contains empirical evidence of more lenient credit standards during boom periods, both in terms of screening of borrowers and in collateral requirements.
Gabriel Jiménez, Jesús Saurina
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Economics & Politics, 2020
AbstractThis paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this relationship, the link between electoral cycles and credit expansion has seen little exploration at the multicountry level.
Andreas Kern, Puspa Amri
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AbstractThis paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this relationship, the link between electoral cycles and credit expansion has seen little exploration at the multicountry level.
Andreas Kern, Puspa Amri
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Manchester School, 2019
Following the debate on the relationship between business and financial cycle rekindled in the last decade since the global financial crisis, we assess the ability of some financial indicators to track the Italian business cycle.
Valentina Aprigliano, Danilo Liberati
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Following the debate on the relationship between business and financial cycle rekindled in the last decade since the global financial crisis, we assess the ability of some financial indicators to track the Italian business cycle.
Valentina Aprigliano, Danilo Liberati
semanticscholar +1 more source