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The Role of Race in Forecasts of Violent Crime
Race and Social Problems, 2009This paper addresses the role of race in forecasts of failure on probation or parole. Failure is defined as committing a homicide or attempted homicide or being the victim of a homicide or an attempted homicide. These are very rare events in the population of individuals studied, which can make these outcomes extremely difficult to forecast accurately.
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Forecasting Future Crime Rates
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 2023Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise based on ...
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