Results 191 to 200 of about 66,780 (307)

Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic predictive power of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility). Our forecasting exercise shows that US term spread volatility has significant predictive power for US industrial production and employment growth.
Anastasios Megaritis   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Globalization and health in an emerging new world order. [PDF]

open access: yesGlobal Health
Labonté R   +5 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Global Insights Into Term Spreads: Unveiling Their Predictive Power During Unconventional Monetary Policy

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study investigates the predictive power of the term spread for forecasting economic activity across both conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. Utilizing data from 22 OECD countries spanning the period from 1985Q1 to 2024Q2, the analysis reveals that the term spread generally maintains its ability to predict GDP growth ...
Petri Kuosmanen, Juuso Vataja
wiley   +1 more source

Identifying Drivers of Deviations From Rational Expectations: Using a New Irrational Index for Inflation Forecasts

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Most studies on inflation forecasts have studied behavioral biases, informational frictions, or external shocks in isolation, without considering how these factors jointly drive deviations from rational expectations. We therefore adopt an integrated framework that simultaneously estimates the behavioral, informational, and external ...
Belen Chocobar, Peter Claeys
wiley   +1 more source

Exploring the Nexus Between Sustainability Index and Central European Stock Markets Competitiveness: Evidence Through Time–Frequency Analysis and SHAP

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Sustainability has become an important factor shaping financial markets and investor behavior. This paper examines the relationship between sustainability indices and Central European stock markets using a time–frequency approach. Wavelet coherence is employed to capture time‐varying co‐movements between sustainability indices and stock market
Zuzana Janková   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

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