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Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999
Abstract In recent years, a number of researchers have claimed success in systematically predicting which countries are more likely to suffer currency crises, most notably Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). This paper evaluates the KLR approach to anticipating currency crises and develops and tests an alternative.
Andrew Berg, Catherine Pattillo
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Abstract In recent years, a number of researchers have claimed success in systematically predicting which countries are more likely to suffer currency crises, most notably Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). This paper evaluates the KLR approach to anticipating currency crises and develops and tests an alternative.
Andrew Berg, Catherine Pattillo
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Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2000 Abstract The large movements in exchange rates that occurred in many South East Asian countries in 1997 have revived interest in the topic of currency crises. In many of the early models of currency crises, such as Kurgan (1979), currency crises occur because of inconsistent and unsustainable government policies (see Flood and Marion (
Franklin Allen, Douglas Gale
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2008
There have been many currency crises during the post-war era (see Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999). A currency crisis is an episode in which the exchange rate depreciates substantially during a short period of time. There is an extensive literature on the causes and consequences of a currency crisis in a country with a fixed or heavily managed exchange ...
Craig Burnside +2 more
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There have been many currency crises during the post-war era (see Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999). A currency crisis is an episode in which the exchange rate depreciates substantially during a short period of time. There is an extensive literature on the causes and consequences of a currency crisis in a country with a fixed or heavily managed exchange ...
Craig Burnside +2 more
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Currency futures and currency crises [PDF]
, 2004 Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates.
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Open Economies Review, 1996
The papers in this volume deal with the antecedents and consequences of currency crises. The emergence of intense pressures within the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System in late 1992 and in 1993, eventuating in the suspension of several currencies from the mechanism and a widening of the fluctuation bands to 15 percent for ...
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The papers in this volume deal with the antecedents and consequences of currency crises. The emergence of intense pressures within the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System in late 1992 and in 1993, eventuating in the suspension of several currencies from the mechanism and a widening of the fluctuation bands to 15 percent for ...
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 1998
This paper examines the determinants of currency crises with a panel annual dataset for 30 countries between 1975 and 1996. We estimate a probit model with random effects, and find that high rates of seignorage, current account imbalances, real exchange rate misalignment, low foreign exchange reserves, negative terms of trade shocks, poor growth ...
Gerardo Esquivel, Felipe Larrain
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This paper examines the determinants of currency crises with a panel annual dataset for 30 countries between 1975 and 1996. We estimate a probit model with random effects, and find that high rates of seignorage, current account imbalances, real exchange rate misalignment, low foreign exchange reserves, negative terms of trade shocks, poor growth ...
Gerardo Esquivel, Felipe Larrain
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Currency Flows and Currency Crises
CESifo Economic Studies, 2017According to the most common understanding, currency crises are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Based on a formal theoretical model and ample empirical evidence, this article argues instead that currency crises are always and everywhere about external imbalances.
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