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Unrest and Eruption Forecasting
2021The shallow accumulation and/or transfer of magma commonly result in anomalous geodetic, geophysical or geochemical activity of the volcano, named unrest, which is detectable through a monitoring system. At closed conduit volcanoes, every eruption is preceded by unrest.
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Seismogenic lavas and explosive eruption forecasting
Nature, 2008Volcanic dome-building episodes commonly exhibit acceleration in both effusive discharge rate and seismicity before explosive eruptions. This should enable the application of material failure forecasting methods to eruption forecasting. To date, such methods have been based exclusively on the seismicity of the country rock.
Philip G. Meredith +8 more
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A review of retrospective stress-forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions [PDF]
Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2015 Changes in shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitor stress-induced changes to the geometry of the stress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks pervading almost all sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic rocks in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle. Changes in SWS implying stress–accumulation and stress–relaxation (suggesting crack-coalescence) before large ...
Julian Bukits +3 more
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptive Disasters [PDF]
, 1988 Volcanic hazards are of various kinds. Forecasts and mitigation are therefore different. The most obvious risks are those resulting from lava flows as at Paricutin, for instance, or due to explosions (Mt. St. Helens). But there are others, less known to the public at large, although they occur more frequently: i.e.
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Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2021Abstract For accurate and timely information on the evolving state of our volcanoes we need reliable short-term forecasts. These forecasts directly impact crisis management from evacuations, exclusion zones, and when it is safe to return. Eruption forecasting should not be viewed as an academic exercise or a theoretical discussion in a back room, nor
Melody G. Whitehead, Mark Bebbington
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Eruption forecasting at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1984Data from a network of seismometers, a tiltmeter and the pattern of summit inflation between eruptions have made qualitative eruption forecasting possible on Kilauea volcano for over 20 years. This paper formulates quantitative forecasting by calculating the probability of an eruption based on current levels of tilt, tilt rate, seismicity, and ...
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Communicating eruption and hazard forecasts on Vesuvius, Southern Italy
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2008Emergency response plans have been formalised for only one third of the 32 volcanoes that have erupted in the past 500 years in Europe and its dependent territories. As local and tourist populations increase around the remaining 67%, so also the need for an appropriate emergency plan becomes more urgent.
Solana, Carmen, Kilburn, C., Rolandi, G.
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Towards the assimilation of deformation data for eruption forecasting
2017International ...
Bato, Mary-Grace +2 more
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Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2014
Abstract Estimating the hazard associated with a volcanic eruption requires an understanding of previous eruptive episodes to forecast future events. This involves calculating how destructive a future eruption is likely to be by estimating the magnitude of eruptive activity and likelihood of various hazardous phenomena.
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Abstract Estimating the hazard associated with a volcanic eruption requires an understanding of previous eruptive episodes to forecast future events. This involves calculating how destructive a future eruption is likely to be by estimating the magnitude of eruptive activity and likelihood of various hazardous phenomena.
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Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2013A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made.
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