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Seismogenic lavas and explosive eruption forecasting
Nature, 2008Volcanic dome-building episodes commonly exhibit acceleration in both effusive discharge rate and seismicity before explosive eruptions. This should enable the application of material failure forecasting methods to eruption forecasting. To date, such methods have been based exclusively on the seismicity of the country rock.
Y, Lavallée +7 more
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Unrest and Eruption Forecasting
2021The shallow accumulation and/or transfer of magma commonly result in anomalous geodetic, geophysical or geochemical activity of the volcano, named unrest, which is detectable through a monitoring system. At closed conduit volcanoes, every eruption is preceded by unrest.
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Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2021Abstract For accurate and timely information on the evolving state of our volcanoes we need reliable short-term forecasts. These forecasts directly impact crisis management from evacuations, exclusion zones, and when it is safe to return. Eruption forecasting should not be viewed as an academic exercise or a theoretical discussion in a back room, nor
Melody G. Whitehead, Mark S. Bebbington
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Volcano deformation and eruption forecasting
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 2013Abstract Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS), tilt and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) have greatly increased the availability of volcano deformation data. These measurements, combined with appropriate source models, can be used to estimate magma chamber depth, and to provide information on chamber shape and ...
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptive Disasters
1988Volcanic hazards are of various kinds. Forecasts and mitigation are therefore different. The most obvious risks are those resulting from lava flows as at Paricutin, for instance, or due to explosions (Mt. St. Helens). But there are others, less known to the public at large, although they occur more frequently: i.e.
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Eruption forecasting at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1984Data from a network of seismometers, a tiltmeter and the pattern of summit inflation between eruptions have made qualitative eruption forecasting possible on Kilauea volcano for over 20 years. This paper formulates quantitative forecasting by calculating the probability of an eruption based on current levels of tilt, tilt rate, seismicity, and ...
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Forecast of volcanic eruptions by chemical methods
Bulletin Volcanologique, 1975From the magmatic emanations differentiation point of view it is possible to calculate some ratios such as F/CO2, Cl/CO2, SO2/CO2, SO2/H2S, H2S/CO2 and CO2/N2 in the tumarolic gases for the forecasting of volcanic activity. In order to predict the cruptions of a volcano it is needed to select several fumaroles or hot springs having different regimes of
I. Iwasaki +3 more
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Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2013A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made.
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Automatic Forecasting of Volcanoes Eruption Time
2022 16th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication (IMCOM), 2022Abdulrahman Hussien Mustafa +4 more
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