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Eruption Forecasting Model for Copahue Volcano (Southern Andes) Using Seismic Data and Machine Learning: A Joint Interpretation with Geodetic Data (GNSS and InSAR)

Seismological Research Letters
Anticipating volcanic eruptions remains a challenge despite significant scientific advancements, leading to substantial human and economic losses. Traditional approaches, like volcano alert levels, provide current volcanic states but do not always ...
L. Cabrera   +9 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Seismogenic lavas and explosive eruption forecasting

Nature, 2008
Volcanic dome-building episodes commonly exhibit acceleration in both effusive discharge rate and seismicity before explosive eruptions. This should enable the application of material failure forecasting methods to eruption forecasting. To date, such methods have been based exclusively on the seismicity of the country rock.
Philip G. Meredith   +8 more
openaire   +3 more sources

A review of retrospective stress-forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions [PDF]

open access: possiblePhysics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2015
Changes in shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitor stress-induced changes to the geometry of the stress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks pervading almost all sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic rocks in the Earth’s crust and upper mantle. Changes in SWS implying stress–accumulation and stress–relaxation (suggesting crack-coalescence) before large ...
Julian Bukits   +3 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Forecasting Volcanic Eruptive Disasters [PDF]

open access: possible, 1988
Volcanic hazards are of various kinds. Forecasts and mitigation are therefore different. The most obvious risks are those resulting from lava flows as at Paricutin, for instance, or due to explosions (Mt. St. Helens). But there are others, less known to the public at large, although they occur more frequently: i.e.
openaire   +1 more source

Eruption forecasting at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1984
Data from a network of seismometers, a tiltmeter and the pattern of summit inflation between eruptions have made qualitative eruption forecasting possible on Kilauea volcano for over 20 years. This paper formulates quantitative forecasting by calculating the probability of an eruption based on current levels of tilt, tilt rate, seismicity, and ...
openaire   +2 more sources

Microgravity as a tool for eruption forecasting

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2023
E. de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen   +1 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Communicating eruption and hazard forecasts on Vesuvius, Southern Italy

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2008
Emergency response plans have been formalised for only one third of the 32 volcanoes that have erupted in the past 500 years in Europe and its dependent territories. As local and tourist populations increase around the remaining 67%, so also the need for an appropriate emergency plan becomes more urgent.
Solana, Carmen, Kilburn, C., Rolandi, G.
openaire   +4 more sources

Long-term eruption forecasting

Nature Geoscience, 2022
T. Mittal
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Long-term forecasting of eruption hazards: A hierarchical approach to merge analogous eruptive histories

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2014
Abstract Estimating the hazard associated with a volcanic eruption requires an understanding of previous eruptive episodes to forecast future events. This involves calculating how destructive a future eruption is likely to be by estimating the magnitude of eruptive activity and likelihood of various hazardous phenomena.
openaire   +3 more sources

Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets

Bulletin of Volcanology, 2013
A method for assessing prospectively the quality of a suite of eruption forecasts is proposed. Any forecast of the next eruption onset from a polygenetic volcano can be converted into a probability distribution for the elapsed time since the forecast is made.
openaire   +2 more sources

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