Results 261 to 270 of about 780,552 (305)

Expectation formation: Criteria and an assessment

De Economist, 1988
This paper presents three requirements which hypotheses on expectation formation should meet. These three criteria refer to the data used, to the learning process and to the identification of structural parameters. In the second part of the paper these criteria are used for assessing various expectation hypotheses and estimation procedures of models ...
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Inflation Perception and the Formation of Inflation Expectations

2023
In diesem Papier stellen wir einen neuen Indikator zur Messung der Inflationswahrnehmung in den Medien vor. Unser Inflationswahrnehmungsindikator (IPI) für Deutschland basiert auf einem Korpus von drei Millionen Artikeln, die zwischen Januar 2001 und November 2022 in großen Tageszeitungen veröffentlicht wurden.
Schmidt, Torsten, Müller, Henrik, Rieger, Jonas, Schmidt, Tobias, Jentsch, Carsten   +4 more
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Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or …?

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1994
Abstract This paper reports on an experimental investigation in which subjects are appropriately motivated to reveal their expectations of two time series. Two hypotheses are investigated: that expectations are formed rationally; that they are formed adaptively.
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Evaluations and the Formation of Expectations

American Journal of Sociology, 1995
This article presents a theoretical formulation that integrates two theories within the expectation states program-status characteristics and expectation states theory and source theory. The integration is carried out within the mathematical framework of status characteristics theory, and the mathematical formulation that is an integral part of that ...
M. Hamit Fisek, Joseph Berger, Robert Z. Norman   +2 more
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Inflation and the formation of expectations

Journal of Monetary Economics, 1976
Abstract This paper develops a model of expectations which generates paths that are consistent with observations that an acceleration of the monetary growth rate initially raises and eventually lowers real holdings of cash balances. It introduces a two-part expectations hypothesis where individuals are assumed to form expectations about the entire ...
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Aggregate Expectations Formation

1985
In the previous chapters we outlined the various ways used in the economics literature to model agents’ expectations or forecasts of the future value of variables. In fact, many other techniques — such as the Holt-Winters method, exponential smoothing, and Brown’s linear exponential smoothing — which involve varying degrees of complexity are available (
K. Holden, D. A. Peel, J. L. Thompson
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An experiment on the formation of expectations

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1988
Abstract People were shown charts of computer-created ‘time series’, and were asked for their projections of the ‘future’ direction they expected the series to take. The characteristics of the time series shown in the charts were systematically varied so as to allow inferences as to the effect of these characteristics on the respondents' forecasts ...
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An Empirical Window on Rational Expectations Formation

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1992
Persons' expectations regarding their ultimate life span provide a tractable empirical opportunity to test for rational expectations. To the extent people only utilize information from "current life tables," they underestimate the more relevant ultimate life expectancy that results from on-going improvements in mortality experience not reflected in ...
Pollock, Richard L, Suyderhoud, Jack P
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The Formation of Earnings Expectations.

The Accounting Review, 1985
Abstract ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the manner in which financial analysts' forecasts of annual earnings are formed. A sample of over 6,000 earnings forecasts made over a period of 11 years is examined. The results from the time-series tests show that analysts' forecasts of annual earnings are rational in the sense that they fully ...
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Expectation formation and regime switches

Experimental Economics, 2009
AbstractEconomic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expectation formation has hardly been explored in this context. We report about a laboratory experiment whose participants judgmentally forecast three time series subject to regime switches.
Becker, Otwin, Leitner, Johannes, Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike   +2 more
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