Anticipating trajectories of exponential growth [PDF]
Royal Society Open Science, 2021 Humans grossly underestimate exponential growth, but are at the same time overconfident in their (poor) judgement. The so-called ‘exponential growth bias' is of new relevance in the context of COVID-19, because it explains why humans have fundamental ...
Florian Hutzler +5 more
doaj +9 more sources
Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence [PDF]
Journal of Economic Psychology, 2017 There is increasing evidence that people underestimate the magnitude of compounding interest. However, if people were aware of their inability to make such calculations they should demand services to ameliorate the consequences of such deficiencies. In a
Joshua Tasoff
exaly +4 more sources
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number [PDF]
Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020 The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number.
Junling Ma
exaly +3 more sources
Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. [PDF]
Science, 2021 Description Vaccination and disease The United Kingdom has high rates of vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exceeding 80% of adults.
Elliott P +20 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Is my visualization better than yours? Analyzing factors modulating exponential growth bias in graphs [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2023 Humans tend to systematically underestimate exponential growth and perceive it in linear terms, which can have severe consequences in a variety of fields.
Gerda Ana Melnik-Leroy +6 more
doaj +2 more sources
Origin of exponential growth in nonlinear reaction networks. [PDF]
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2020 Significance Natural systems (e.g., cells and ecosystems) generally consist of reaction networks (e.g., metabolic networks or food webs) with nonlinear flux functions (e.g., Michaelis–Menten kinetics and density-dependent selection).
Lin WH +4 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa [PDF]
Infect Dis Poverty, 2020 Background Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa was detected on February 14, 2020, the cumulative confirmations reached 15 207 including 831 deaths by April 13, 2020.
Musa SS +5 more
europepmc +3 more sources
How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases. [PDF]
PLoS One, 2020 Sustained non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can contain the spread of infectious disease when vaccines or treatments are not available. The benefit of such behavioural adaptations can be modelled as the deceleration of the exponential growth of ...
Schonger M, Sele D.
europepmc +2 more sources
Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19 [PDF]
PLoS One, 2020 We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases,
Livadiotis G.
europepmc +3 more sources
COVID-19 Misinformation Spread in Eight Countries: Exponential Growth Modeling Study. [PDF]
J Med Internet Res, 2020 Background The epidemic of misinformation about COVID-19 transmission, prevention, and treatment has been going on since the start of the pandemic. However, data on the exposure and impact of misinformation is not readily available.
Nsoesie EO +3 more
europepmc +2 more sources