A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration
Malaria Journal, 2017 Background Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as an intervention to achieve local extinction of malaria. Although its effect on the reproduction number is short lived, extinction may subsequently occur in a small population due to ...
Peter Pemberton-Ross +3 more
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Extinction Probability of Interacting Branching Collision Processes [PDF]
Advances in Applied Probability, 2012 We consider the uniqueness and extinction properties of the interacting branching collision process (IBCP), which consists of two strongly interacting components: an ordinary Markov branching process and a collision branching process. We establish that there is a unique IBCP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive that
Chen, Anyue +3 more
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Reduced strength and increased variability of extinction selectivity during mass extinctions
Royal Society Open Science, 2023 Two of the traits most often observed to correlate with extinction risk in marine animals are geographical range and body size. However, the relative effects of these two traits on extinction risk have not been investigated systematically for either ...
Pedro M. Monarrez +2 more
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The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability [PDF]
Oecologia, 2004 In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are
Alpizar-Jara, R. +5 more
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The Branching Process: A General Conceptual Framework for Addressing Current Ecological and Evolutionary Questions [PDF]
LifeClassical branching-process theory, developed by Galton and Watson in the nineteenth century and later refined by Fisher and Haldane, provides the formal framework for quantifying the fate of new mutants, new viral and bacterial pathogens, new ...
Xuhua Xia
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On the probability of extinction in a periodic environment [PDF]
Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2012 For a certain class of multi-type branching processes in a continuous-time periodic environment, we show that the extinction probability is equal to (resp. less than) 1 if the basic reproduction number R(0) is less than (resp. bigger than) 1. The proof uses results concerning the asymptotic behavior of cooperative systems of differential equations.
/Bacaër, Nicolas, Dads, E. A.
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Newton’s iteration for the extinction probability of a Markovian binary tree [PDF]
Linear Algebra and its Applications, 2008 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Hautphenne, Sophie +2 more
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Extinction Probability in A Birth-Death Process with Killing [PDF]
Journal of Applied Probability, 2005 We study birth-death processes on the nonnegative integers, where {1, 2,…} is an irreducible class and 0 an absorbing state, with the additional feature that a transition to state 0 may occur from any state. We give a condition for absorption (extinction) to be certain and obtain the eventual absorption probabilities when absorption is not certain.
van Doorn, Erik A. +1 more
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On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic [PDF]
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014 More than three years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already caused more than 8,500 deaths and 695,000 infections and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting the possibility that the ...
E. Bertuzzo +4 more
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Interactions between demography, genetics, and landscape connectivity increase extinction probability for a small population of large carnivores in a major metropolitan area. [PDF]
Proc Biol Sci, 2016 Benson JF +6 more
europepmc +2 more sources