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Mathematical Biosciences, 2023
Understanding how tipping points arise is critical for population protection and ecosystem robustness. This work evaluates the impact of environmental stochasticity on the emergence of tipping points in a predator-prey system subject to the Allee effect ...
Tao Feng, R. Milne, Hao Wang
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Understanding how tipping points arise is critical for population protection and ecosystem robustness. This work evaluates the impact of environmental stochasticity on the emergence of tipping points in a predator-prey system subject to the Allee effect ...
Tao Feng, R. Milne, Hao Wang
semanticscholar +1 more source
IS IT MEANINGFUL TO ESTIMATE A PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION?
Ecology, 1999I calculate probabilities of quasi-extinction of natural populations from time series of census data or estimated abundance. The results depend sensitively upon estimated parameters. Short time series or poor fits of the model to data lead to wide confidence intervals for the probability of quasi-extinction.
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Extinction probabilities in predator–prey models
Journal of Applied Probability, 1986Two stochastic models are developed for the predator-prey process. In each case it is shown that ultimate extinction of one of the two populations is certain to occur in finite time. For each model an exact expression is derived for the probability that the predators eventually become extinct when the prey birth rate is 0.
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Uncertainty and the Assessment of Extinction Probabilities
Ecological Applications, 1996A proper assessment of the probability of early collapse or extinction of a population requires consideration of our uncertainty about crucial parameters and processes. Simple simulation approaches to assessment consider only a single set of parameter values, but what is required is consideration of all more or less plausible combinations of parameters.
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Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2014
Upper bounds for the expected time to extinction in the Galton-Watson process are obtained. We also found upper and lower bounds for the probability of extinction of this process. These bounds improve some bounds previously obtained by other authors.
JosÉ E. ValdÉs +2 more
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Upper bounds for the expected time to extinction in the Galton-Watson process are obtained. We also found upper and lower bounds for the probability of extinction of this process. These bounds improve some bounds previously obtained by other authors.
JosÉ E. ValdÉs +2 more
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Monitoring occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities for gibbon populations
American Journal of Primatology, 2020AbstractAll gibbon species (Family: Hylobatidae) are considered threatened with extinction and recognized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. Because gibbons are one of the most threatened families of primates, monitoring their status is now critically important.
Thinh T. Vu +5 more
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Probability of Extinction in a Finite Population with Truncation Selection
Biometrics, 1980SUMMARY A model is considered for a finite population in the presence of a combination of natural and artificial selection. The population is assumed to contain two types of individuals which reproduce according to a Poisson distribution. The probability that a given type is lost within a certain time is obtained.
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Oikos, 2006
Estimating the rate of change of the composition of communities is of direct interest to address many fundamental and applied questions in ecology. One methodological problem is that it is hard to detect all the species present in a community. Nichols et al. presented an estimator of the local extinction rate that takes into account species probability
Jenouvrier, S., Boulinier, T.
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Estimating the rate of change of the composition of communities is of direct interest to address many fundamental and applied questions in ecology. One methodological problem is that it is hard to detect all the species present in a community. Nichols et al. presented an estimator of the local extinction rate that takes into account species probability
Jenouvrier, S., Boulinier, T.
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Extinction Probabilities in Branching Processes
1977Denote by Z n the size of the nth generation, and by P n the generating function of its probability distribution. By assumption Z0 = 1 and $$P_1 (s) = P(s) = \sum\limits_{k = 0}^\infty {P_k s^k.} $$ (4.1)
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