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Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction

Risk Analysis, 2007
In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing ...
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On the Risk of Extinction

The American Naturalist, 1988
Well-known theoretical predictions are that the risk of extinction should decrease with maximum population size (K) and should increase with the temporal coefficient of variation in population size (CV). In an unvarying environment, where extinction is caused solely by demographic accidents, the risk of extinction should decrease steeply with K; the ...
Stuart L. Pimm   +2 more
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EXTINCTION RISK OF HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS

Ecology, 2005
The extinction of small populations is a stochastic process, affected by both environmental variation and chance variation in the fates of individuals (demographic stochasticity). Here I examine how population extinction risk is affected by variation in the underlying individual phenotypes, using a branching-process approach.
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Extinction risks from climate change

Science, 2015
How will climate change affect global biodiversity? [Also see Report by Urban et al. ]
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Explaining variation in extinction risk

2002
Abstract How can we approach the problem, identified by Bob May and John Lawton (see quotations at the start of this section), of understanding the ecological mechanisms that underlie interspecific variation in extinction risk? Nearly 10,000 living bird species are recognized, of which 12% (1183) are currently classified as being ...
Peter M Bennett, Ian P F Owens
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Extinction risk in fragmented habitats

Animal Conservation, 2004
AbstractPopulation models incorporating demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity were created from long‐term data on natural populations of 30 species of vertebrates. The probability of extinction for a single population in a continuous habitat was compared to that of multiple isolated, or semi‐isolated, populations occupying a fragmented ...
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Extinction Risk at High Latitudes

2012
Of the abiotic changes associated with the current phase of warming occurring on Earth, the loss of sea ice, snow cover, and glaciers are among the most apparent, rapid, and potentially ecologically devastating. These physical effects make polar regions the most likely places to experience first extinctions due to climate change.
Eric Post, Jedediah Brodie
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Estimating extinction risk

Nature Climate Change, 2012
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