Results 271 to 280 of about 449,317 (315)
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Intelligent Decision Technologies, 2008
According to scientists we all are experiencing "Extreme Events" every day. Even by being part of a traffic jam. In order to better understand these extreme events, the data of over one hundred gauging stations along the "Kölner Ring" (a Freeway around the city of Cologne) is being collected and analyzed. To help the scientists to understand their data,
Anne Beer, David Goldammer
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According to scientists we all are experiencing "Extreme Events" every day. Even by being part of a traffic jam. In order to better understand these extreme events, the data of over one hundred gauging stations along the "Kölner Ring" (a Freeway around the city of Cologne) is being collected and analyzed. To help the scientists to understand their data,
Anne Beer, David Goldammer
openaire +3 more sources
2008
We discuss concepts for the prediction of extreme events based on time series data. We consider both probabilistic forecasts and predictions by precursors. Probabilistic forecasts employ estimates of the probability for the event to follow, whereas precursors are temporal patterns in the data typically preceeding events. Theoretical considerations lead
Hallerberg, S., Bröcker, J., Kantz, H.
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We discuss concepts for the prediction of extreme events based on time series data. We consider both probabilistic forecasts and predictions by precursors. Probabilistic forecasts employ estimates of the probability for the event to follow, whereas precursors are temporal patterns in the data typically preceeding events. Theoretical considerations lead
Hallerberg, S., Bröcker, J., Kantz, H.
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To be an extreme event or not: That is the question
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear ScienceConsidering the lack of consensus for defining extreme events, we propose to revisit their definition. Our definition is based on the topological characterization of nominal dynamics, that is, hereafter, distinguished from extreme events with the help of two thresholds, one for the oscillation amplitude and one for the return time between two ...
Christophe Letellier +3 more
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The Silver Lining of Extreme Events
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2020Extreme climatic events cause devastating impacts to species and ecosystems, precipitating significant mortality. However, emerging empirical evidence is revealing that such mortality can drive directional selection and result in increased tolerance. We discuss the novel opportunities for promoting climate resilience presented by this 'silver lining ...
M A, Coleman, T, Wernberg
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Influence of the event magnitude on the predictability of an extreme event
Physical Review E, 2008We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm based on precursory structures which are identified using the maximum likelihood principle.
Hallerberg, S., Kantz, H.
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AbstractCompound extreme weather events are frequent and exhibit new features in the context of global change. This study unravels the characteristics, variations, and driving factors of compound extreme temperature‐extreme dust events in the Gobi Desert (GD) during the springs of 2000–2023. The temperature in the GD is high before extreme dust events (
Qingzhe Zhu, Yuzhi Liu, Rui Jia, Na Xiao
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AbstractCompound extreme weather events are frequent and exhibit new features in the context of global change. This study unravels the characteristics, variations, and driving factors of compound extreme temperature‐extreme dust events in the Gobi Desert (GD) during the springs of 2000–2023. The temperature in the GD is high before extreme dust events (
Qingzhe Zhu, Yuzhi Liu, Rui Jia, Na Xiao
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Extreme Events and Emergency Scales
2021An event is extreme if its magnitude exceeds the threshold. A choice of a threshold is subject to uncertainty caused by a method, the size of available data, a hypothesis on statistics, etc. We assess the degree of uncertainty by the Shannon's entropy calculated on the probability that the threshold changes at any given time.
Veniamin Smirnov +2 more
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2015
The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modelling of
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The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modelling of
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Extreme events in bimodal systems
Physical Review E, 2008The extreme value statistics of systems possessing a two-hump probability density of the relevant variable, in which the left peak is more pronounced than the right one, is studied. It is shown that systems of this type display a nontrivial transient behavior in the form of anomalous fluctuations around the mean, for certain (finite) ranges of ...
Nicolis, Stamatios, Nicolis, C.
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2006
The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones is often based on short-term historical records that may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming ...
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The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones is often based on short-term historical records that may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming ...
openaire +1 more source