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Fan charts 2.0: Flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement
International Journal of Forecasting, 2021I propose a new model, conditional quantile regression (CQR), that generates density forecasts consistent with a specific view of the future evolution of some variables. This addresses a shortcoming of existing quantile regression-based models, for example the at-risk framework popularised by Adrian et al.
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Alternative Energy and Ecology (ISJAEE), 2019
The article considers the oscillations of interband magneto-optical absorption in semiconductors with the Kane dispersion law. We have compared the changes in oscillations of the joint density of states with respect to the photon energy for different ...
G. Gulyamov, U. Erkaboev, A. G. Gulyamov
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The article considers the oscillations of interband magneto-optical absorption in semiconductors with the Kane dispersion law. We have compared the changes in oscillations of the joint density of states with respect to the photon energy for different ...
G. Gulyamov, U. Erkaboev, A. G. Gulyamov
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Backtesting the RPIX inflation fan charts
The Journal of Risk Model Validation, 2007This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the forecasting performance of the Bank of England’s RPIX inflation fan charts. The tests are carried out on forecast data that have gone through probability integral and then Berkowitz transformations to become standard normal under the null hypothesis that the Bank’s forecasts are adequate.
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Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts*
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012AbstractOrdinary fan charts consist of symmetric marginal forecast intervals, and do not take into consideration the concrete loss function of the user of the forecast. The note shows how to build fan charts that have exact joint coverage even under asymmetric loss, and maintain at the same time the intuition conveyed by ordinary fan charts.
Matei Demetrescu, Mu‐Chun Wang
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The GDP fan charts: an empirical evaluation
National Institute Economic Review, 2008This paper evaluates the probability density forecasts reflected in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term ...
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Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper’s toxic tail: The survivor fan charts
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2008zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Blake, David +2 more
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IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering
Rolling element bearings are crucial key components in rotating machinery, and it is essential to monitor their condition to prevent unexpected breakdown or safety incidents.
Wei Fan +3 more
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Rolling element bearings are crucial key components in rotating machinery, and it is essential to monitor their condition to prevent unexpected breakdown or safety incidents.
Wei Fan +3 more
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Revista Moneda, 2012 El fan chart es el gráfico que el BCRP publica en sus Reportes de Inflación con el fin de transmitir al público su visión sobre la evolución futura de la economía en general y de la inflación en particular; así como de la incertidumbre inherente en sus proyecciones.
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On Pre-training of Multimodal Language Models Customized for Chart Understanding
arXiv.orgRecent studies customizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for domain-specific tasks have yielded promising results, especially in the field of scientific chart comprehension.
Wan-Cyuan Fan +4 more
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Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution [PDF]
, 2013 Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such forecasts.
Wojciech Charemza +2 more
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