The Impact of Uncertainty on Forecasting the US Economy
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper examines the predictive value of uncertainty measures for key macroeconomic indicators across multiple forecast horizons. We evaluate how different uncertainty proxies—economic policy uncertainty (EPU), VIX, geopolitical risk, and measures of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty—enhance forecast accuracy for industrial production,
Angelica Ghiselli
wiley +1 more source
Modulation instability analysis and deriving soliton solutions of new nonlocal Lakshmanan-Porserzian-Daniel equation. [PDF]
Sci RepRabie WB, Abbas W, Ramadan ME, Ahmed HM.
europepmc +1 more source
Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Noise effects on soliton structures of nonlinear Schrödinger equation with generalized Kudryashov's law non-linearity using modified extended mapping technique. [PDF]
Sci RepMshary N, Bossly R, Ahmed HM.
europepmc +1 more source
Forecasting With Dynamic Factor Models Estimated by Partial Least Squares
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have found great success in nowcasting and short‐term macroeconomic forecasting when incorporating large sets of predictive information. The factor loadings are typically estimated cross‐sectionally with principal component analysis (PCA) or maximum likelihood (ML), which ignore whether the factors have predictive ...
Samuel Rauhala
wiley +1 more source
Optical closed form soliton structures for the Kuralay-II equation in nonlinear optical complex media. [PDF]
Sci RepArshad A +5 more
europepmc +1 more source
Practical predefined-time adaptive fuzzy control for quantized nonlinear systems via observer-differentiator scheme. [PDF]
Sci RepWang Y, Chen J, Ma W.
europepmc +1 more source
Exploring complex dynamics in nonlinear Riemann wave models using fractional calculus-based expansion. [PDF]
Sci RepMumtaz A, Masood K, Shakeel M, Shah NA.
europepmc +1 more source
Analytical construction and visualization of nonlinear waves in the (2+1) dimensional Kadomtsev-Petviashvili-Sawada-Kotera-Ramani equation with stability analysis. [PDF]
Sci RepAhmed M, Ahmed HM, Badra N, Samir I.
europepmc +1 more source
New precise solitary wave solutions for coupled Higgs field equations via two enhanced methods. [PDF]
Sci RepHassan U +4 more
europepmc +1 more source