Results 171 to 180 of about 295,971 (251)

On subset least squares estimation and prediction in vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We establish the consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimators of the coefficients of a subset vector autoregressive process with exogenous variables (VARX). Using a martingale central limit theorem, we derive the asymptotic normal distribution of the estimators. Diagnostic checking is discussed using kernel‐based
Pierre Duchesne, Thanh‐Liem Huynh, Mylène Oscar   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Optimal dividends for a NatCat insurer in the presence of a climate tipping point

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We study optimal dividend strategies for an insurance company facing natural catastrophe claims, anticipating the arrival of a climate tipping point after which the claim intensity and/or the claim size distribution of the underlying risks deteriorates irreversibly.
Hansjörg Albrecher, Pablo Azcue, Nora Muler   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Asymptotic properties of cross‐classified sampling designs

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We investigate the family of cross‐classified sampling designs across an arbitrary number of dimensions. We introduce a variance decomposition that enables the derivation of general asymptotic properties for these designs and the development of straightforward and asymptotically unbiased variance estimators.
Jean Rubin, Guillaume Chauvet
wiley   +1 more source

T‐calibration in semi‐parametric models

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract This article relates the calibration of models to the consistent loss functions for the target functional of the model. Correctly specified models are calibrated. Conversely, we demonstrate that if there is a parameter value that is optimal under all consistent loss functions, then a model is calibrated.
Anja Mühlemann, Johanna Ziegel
wiley   +1 more source

Asymptotic independence in more than two dimensions and its implications on risk management

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract In extreme value theory, the presence of asymptotic independence signifies that joint extreme events across multiple variables are unlikely. Although well understood in a bivariate context, the concept remains relatively unexplored when addressing the nuances of simultaneous occurrence of extremes in higher dimensions.
Bikramjit Das, Vicky Fasen‐Hartmann
wiley   +1 more source

Playing with fire? A mean‐field game analysis of fire sales and systemic risk under regulatory capital constraints

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We analyze the effect of regulatory capital constraints on financial stability in a large homogeneous banking system using a mean‐field game (MFG) model. Each bank holds cash and a tradable risky asset. Banks choose absolutely continuous trading rates in order to maximize expected terminal equity, with trades subject to transaction costs ...
Rüdiger Frey, Theresa Traxler
wiley   +1 more source

A Markov approach to credit rating migration conditional on economic states

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time‐homogeneous Markov chain. While the rating process itself possesses the Markov property only under restrictive conditions, methods ...
Michael Kalkbrener, Natalie Packham
wiley   +1 more source

Bayesian clustering of multivariate extremes

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract The asymptotic dependence structure between multivariate extreme values is fully characterized by their projections on the unit simplex. Under mild conditions, the only constraint on the resulting distributions is that their marginal means must be equal, which results in a nonparametric model that can be difficult to use in applications ...
Sonia Alouini, Anthony C. Davison
wiley   +1 more source

Joint modelling of annual precipitation maxima over several durations for the construction of intensity–duration–frequency curves

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract Intensity–duration–frequency curves are used by a wide range of professionals to manage the risks related to extreme rainfall. In Canada, these curves are produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada on the basis of Gumbel distributions fitted independently for each accumulation period.
Paul Mathivon, Christian Genest, Jonathan Jalbert   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Bayesian inverse ensemble forecasting for COVID‐19

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract Variations in strains of COVID‐19 have a significant impact on the rate of surges and on the accuracy of forecasts of the epidemic dynamics. The primary goal for this article is to quantify the effects of varying strains of COVID‐19 on ensemble forecasts of individual “surges.” By modelling the disease dynamics with an SIR model, we solve the ...
Kimberly Kroetch, Don Estep
wiley   +1 more source