Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters [PDF]
Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished.
Yanfei Kang +3 more
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Forecasting FOMC Forecasts [PDF]
(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves.
S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez
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Forecasting Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information about agents' expectations.
Eric Ghysels, Jonathan H. Wright
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Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast [PDF]
Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates ...
Nolte, Ingmar, Pohlmeier, Winfried
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RICE (KHARIF) PRODUCTION ESTIMATION USING SAR DATA OF DIFFERENT SATELLITES AND YIELD MODELS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE ESTIMATES GENERATED UNDER FASAL PROJECT [PDF]
Rice is the most important food crop of India. Majority of Rice is sown in kharif season in the country. This is monsoon season for the country where cloud cover poses a major problem for optical remote sensing.
V. Jain +6 more
doaj +1 more source
Testing for changes in forecasting performance [PDF]
We consider the issue of forecast failure (or breakdown) and propose methods to assess retrospectively whether a given forecasting model provides forecasts which show evidence of changes with respect to some loss function.
Perron, Pierre, Yamamoto, Yohei
core +1 more source
DETECTION OF BACTERIAL WILT DISEASE (PSEUDOMONAS SOLANCEARUM) IN BRINJAL USING HYPERSPECTRAL REMOTE SENSING [PDF]
Bacterial wilt disease (pathogen: Pseudomonas solancearum) is a major problem affecting brinjal crop. Infected leaves show yellowing, loss in turgidity, drying and ultimately the entire plant collapses.
A. Srivastava +6 more
doaj +1 more source
Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts [PDF]
Summary Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts.
Tuljapurkar, Shripad +2 more
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COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUES TO IDENTIFY COCONUT GROWING AREAS IN KOZIKHODE DISTRICT, KERALA [PDF]
This study was envisaged to map the coconut growing areas in Kerala state of India, using multidate NDVI obtained from sentinel 2A MSI data, having spatial resolution as 10 m. 95% Cloud free satellite images were taken for classification and date of pass
N. Singh +4 more
doaj +1 more source
ANALYSIS OF REMOTE SENSING-BASED ASSESSMENT OF POTATO STATISTICS AND ITS COMPARISON WITH GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES [PDF]
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a major horticultural crop of India. In the present study an effort has been made to evaluate the forecast (area, production and productivity) of potato being carried out under FASAL/CHAMAN project of DAC&FW. For this
P. Kumar +5 more
doaj +1 more source

