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Forecasting the Forecasts of Others
Journal of Political Economy, 1983This paper explores the formulation and analysis of linear equilibrium models of investment in which learning is perpetual and informationally decentralized firms need never share the same beliefs concerning time series relevant to their decisions.
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Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999 This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic ...
James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson
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Energy, 2018
Short-term load forecasting is of major interest for the restructured environment of the electricity market. Accurate load forecasting is essential for effective power system operation, but electricity load is non-linear with a high level of volatility ...
N. Ghadimi +3 more
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Short-term load forecasting is of major interest for the restructured environment of the electricity market. Accurate load forecasting is essential for effective power system operation, but electricity load is non-linear with a high level of volatility ...
N. Ghadimi +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
An adaptive middle and long-term runoff forecast model using EEMD-ANN hybrid approach
Journal of Hydrology, 2018It remains a challenge to obtain an accurate middle and long-term runoff forecast, especially in flood seasons. The forecast performance can be improved using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to produce cleaner signals as model inputs.
Q. Tan +6 more
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010
AbstractThis article studies two issues in forecast combination, first considering ways to combine forecasts from surveys and time series models. Second, it considers the possibility, advanced by Hendry and Clements (2004), that model instability can help explain the gains in forecasting performance resulting from combination.
Marco Aiolfi +2 more
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AbstractThis article studies two issues in forecast combination, first considering ways to combine forecasts from surveys and time series models. Second, it considers the possibility, advanced by Hendry and Clements (2004), that model instability can help explain the gains in forecasting performance resulting from combination.
Marco Aiolfi +2 more
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A hybrid support vector regression framework for streamflow forecast
Journal of Hydrology, 2019Monthly streamflow time series are highly non-linear. How to improve forecast accuracy is a great challenge in hydrological studies. A lot of research has been conducted to address the streamflow forecasting problem, however, few methods are developed to
Xiangang Luo +5 more
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Science, 2016
Police are turning to big data to stop crime before it happens. But is predictive policing biased—and does it even work?
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Police are turning to big data to stop crime before it happens. But is predictive policing biased—and does it even work?
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2011
Suggested Citation: Armstrong, J.S., Green, K.C. and Graefe, A. "Forecasting Principles." In International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science (Ed. M. Lovric). Springer, 2011.
Armstrong, J. Scott +2 more
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Suggested Citation: Armstrong, J.S., Green, K.C. and Graefe, A. "Forecasting Principles." In International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science (Ed. M. Lovric). Springer, 2011.
Armstrong, J. Scott +2 more
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Forecasting Inflation Forecast Errors [PDF]
, 2008 We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Forecast errors for the period 2000-2008 show an excess of autocorrelation and a statistically significant bias at the end of the sample. We take advantage of the autocorrelation structure of the forecast errors to build new and more accurate
Andrea Betancor, Pablo Pincheira
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Climacteric, 2015
Recent epidemiological studies from various countries point at the mounting incidence of cancer. This continuous increase in the number of cancer cases will keep its pace in the future. The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is forecast to be more than 50%.
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Recent epidemiological studies from various countries point at the mounting incidence of cancer. This continuous increase in the number of cancer cases will keep its pace in the future. The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is forecast to be more than 50%.
openaire +2 more sources