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Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters [PDF]

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2002
In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation.
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Forecast of Forecast: An Analytic Approach to Stressed Impairment Forecasting

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
The new impairment reporting standards require banks to move from incurred loss models to sophisticated macroeconomic based expected credit loss models for current impairment estimation. While the impairment estimation is mainly focused on business as usual macroeconomic projections, there is a demand and expectation from regulators that the new ...
Jimmy Skoglund, Wei Chen
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Forecasting the Accuracy of Forecasters from Properties of Forecasting Rationales

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
Geopolitical forecasting tournaments have stimulated the development of methods for improving probability judgments of real-world events. But these innovations have focused on easier-to quantify variables, like personnel selection, training, teaming, and crowd aggregation—and bypassed messier constructs, like qualitative properties of forecasters ...
Christopher Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barb Mellers, Philip Tetlock   +5 more
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Forecasting the Forecasts of Others

Journal of Political Economy, 1983
This paper explores the formulation and analysis of linear equilibrium models of investment in which learning is perpetual and informationally decentralized firms need never share the same beliefs concerning time series relevant to their decisions.
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Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts

Management Science, 1995
The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these expected values. This paper introduces a measure of the benefit from combining, the probability of a reduction in error variance, which recognizes this problem.
Roy Batchelor, Pami Dua
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Forecasting Forecast Skill

Monthly Weather Review, 1987
It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses.
Eugenia Kalnay, Amnon Dalcher
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Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts

International Journal of Forecasting, 1990
Abstract This paper uses a survey of US economic forecasters to assess the impact of their theories and forecasting methods on the accuracy of their predictions for a number of macroeconomic variables. Forecasters who give more weight to Keynesian ideology and econometric modelling dominate predominantly atheoretical times series forecasters for most
Roy Bathcelor, Pami Dua
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Forecasting demographic forecasts

International Journal of Forecasting, 2014
Abstract Consider the financial sustainability of public finances in the context of stochastic demographics. Such analyses have typically been made under the assumption that future demographic developments are deterministic. When stochastic demographics have been considered, the problems have been simplified by assuming that the decision makers in ...
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Forecasting Earnings Forecasts [PDF]

, 2013
We analyze earnings forecasts retrieved from the I/B/E/S database concerning 596 firms for the sample 1995 to 2011, with a specific focus on whether these earnings forecasts can be predicted from available data. Our main result is that earnings forecasts can be predicted quite accurately using publicly available information.
Bert de Bruijn, Philip Hans Franses
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Forecasting

Communications of the ACM
Avoid large language models for jobs requiring reliable prediction.
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