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Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting, 1990Abstract This paper uses a survey of US economic forecasters to assess the impact of their theories and forecasting methods on the accuracy of their predictions for a number of macroeconomic variables. Forecasters who give more weight to Keynesian ideology and econometric modelling dominate predominantly atheoretical times series forecasters for most
Roy Bathcelor, Pami Dua
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Forecasting Earnings Forecasts [PDF]
, 2013 We analyze earnings forecasts retrieved from the I/B/E/S database concerning 596 firms for the sample 1995 to 2011, with a specific focus on whether these earnings forecasts can be predicted from available data. Our main result is that earnings forecasts can be predicted quite accurately using publicly available information.
Bert de Bruijn, Philip Hans Franses
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Communications of the ACM
Avoid large language models for jobs requiring reliable prediction.
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Avoid large language models for jobs requiring reliable prediction.
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2019
This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Castle, C, Clements, M, Hendry, D
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This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Castle, C, Clements, M, Hendry, D
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Macroeconomic forecasting and macroeconomic forecasts
Voprosy EkonomikiThe specificity of macroeconomic forecasts is determined not so much by the list of predicted indicators or by mathematical tools used, but by the unavoidable human factor, which often generates great difference between forecasts made by various professionals.
S. V. Smirnov +2 more
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Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey
ACM Computing Surveys, 2023Konstantinos Benidis +2 more
exaly
Microfounded Forecasting [PDF]
, 2014 In this paper, we propose a microfounded framework to investigate a panel of forecasts (e.g. model-driven or survey-based) and the possibility to improve their out-of-sample forecast performance by employing a bias-correction device. Following Patton and Timmermann (2007), we theoretically justify the modeling of forecasts as function of the ...
Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza +1 more
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2007
It is a well-known fact that only factive propositional attitude predicates are felicitous with wh-(indirect question) complements. It has also been noted that so-called emotive factive predicates are only felicitous with some, not all, indirect question complements. But the reasons for these two constraints have remained unclear.
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It is a well-known fact that only factive propositional attitude predicates are felicitous with wh-(indirect question) complements. It has also been noted that so-called emotive factive predicates are only felicitous with some, not all, indirect question complements. But the reasons for these two constraints have remained unclear.
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Forecasting and Forecasts of Demand and Output
1984Forecasting is the process of using data about the past and present to predict the future. Some assumptions about the future are necessary as a basis for almost any type of decision. The assumptions may be based on a `hunch’ or on a systematic use of whatever data are relevant. The `hunch’ forecaster may produce a better prognostication than the formal
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