New Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Predictions based on Monte Carlo and Bootstrap Simulations: An Application to Bulgarian and Romanian Inflation || Nuevas estrategias para mejorar la exactitud de las predicciones de inflación en Rumanía y Bulgaria usando simulaciones Monte Carlo y Bootstrap [PDF]
Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, 2014 The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of actual economic crisis, but few researchers were interested till now in finding out some empirical strategies to improve their predictions.
Simionescu, Mihaela
doaj
Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach [PDF]
Journal of Economic Literature Classification: E17, E27, E32, E37, E47DSGE Model;VAR and BVAR Model;Forecast Accuracy;DSGE Forecasts;VAR Forecasts;BVAR ...
Gupta, R., Liu, G., Schaling, E.
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Continuous and randomized defensive forecasting: unified view [PDF]
, 2007 Defensive forecasting is a method of transforming laws of probability (stated in game-theoretic terms as strategies for Sceptic) into forecasting algorithms.
Vovk, Vladimir
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How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys [PDF]
Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated.
Isiklar, Gultekin +2 more
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Short-term employment forecasts: 2014-2017 [PDF]
Employment forecasts over the three years to March are presented in this report. Purpose Employment forecasts over the 3 years to March 2017 are presented in this report.
core
Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7 [PDF]
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness, and the efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not been analyzed in the literature so far. We provide evidence
Johannes Weisser, Jonas Dovern
core
Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth [PDF]
We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future.
Clements, Michael P.
core
Journal of Flood Risk ManagementClimate change, urbanization, and anthropogenic activities have intensified rainfall and urban flooding, especially along coastlines. The high spatiotemporal variability and erratic pattern of rainfall highlight the incompetency of independent ...
Mousumi Ghosh +3 more
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