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Overprecise forecasts

Review of Accounting Studies, 2022
Yi Dong   +3 more
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Medical forecasting

Science
“AI-Powered Forecasting” was recently on the cover of Science , highlighting a new deep learning model for much faster and more accurate weather forecasting. Known as GraphCast, it outperformed the gold-standard system and had an accuracy of 99.7% for
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Sluggish Forecasts

2018
Vu l’influence que les anticipations des agents économiques exercent sur de grandes variables macroéconomiques, on peut s’étonner du très petit nombre d’études qui ont tenté d’extrapoler les « véritables » anticipations des agents directement à partir des données.
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Forecasting forecasting!

Production Engineer, 1977
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A forecaster's forecaster

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2002
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Bayesian forecasting

1986
In this paper Bayesian methods are applied to dynamical linear models \[ Y_ t=F_ t\theta_ t+v_ t,\quad \theta_ t=G_ t\theta_{t- 1}+w_ t, \] with normal distribution assumptions and dynamical generalized linear models with observations of the exponential family.
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