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Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting, 1990Abstract This paper uses a survey of US economic forecasters to assess the impact of their theories and forecasting methods on the accuracy of their predictions for a number of macroeconomic variables. Forecasters who give more weight to Keynesian ideology and econometric modelling dominate predominantly atheoretical times series forecasters for most
Roy Bathcelor, Pami Dua
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Forecasting demographic forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting, 2014Abstract Consider the financial sustainability of public finances in the context of stochastic demographics. Such analyses have typically been made under the assumption that future demographic developments are deterministic. When stochastic demographics have been considered, the problems have been simplified by assuming that the decision makers in ...
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Forecasting Earnings Forecasts [PDF]
, 2013 We analyze earnings forecasts retrieved from the I/B/E/S database concerning 596 firms for the sample 1995 to 2011, with a specific focus on whether these earnings forecasts can be predicted from available data. Our main result is that earnings forecasts can be predicted quite accurately using publicly available information.
Bert de Bruijn, Philip Hans Franses
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Communications of the ACM
Avoid large language models for jobs requiring reliable prediction.
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Avoid large language models for jobs requiring reliable prediction.
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010
AbstractThis article studies two issues in forecast combination, first considering ways to combine forecasts from surveys and time series models. Second, it considers the possibility, advanced by Hendry and Clements (2004), that model instability can help explain the gains in forecasting performance resulting from combination.
Marco Aiolfi +2 more
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AbstractThis article studies two issues in forecast combination, first considering ways to combine forecasts from surveys and time series models. Second, it considers the possibility, advanced by Hendry and Clements (2004), that model instability can help explain the gains in forecasting performance resulting from combination.
Marco Aiolfi +2 more
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Macroeconomic forecasting and macroeconomic forecasts
Voprosy EkonomikiThe specificity of macroeconomic forecasts is determined not so much by the list of predicted indicators or by mathematical tools used, but by the unavoidable human factor, which often generates great difference between forecasts made by various professionals.
S. V. Smirnov +2 more
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Microfounded Forecasting [PDF]
, 2014 In this paper, we propose a microfounded framework to investigate a panel of forecasts (e.g. model-driven or survey-based) and the possibility to improve their out-of-sample forecast performance by employing a bias-correction device. Following Patton and Timmermann (2007), we theoretically justify the modeling of forecasts as function of the ...
Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza +1 more
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Climacteric, 2015
Recent epidemiological studies from various countries point at the mounting incidence of cancer. This continuous increase in the number of cancer cases will keep its pace in the future. The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is forecast to be more than 50%.
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Recent epidemiological studies from various countries point at the mounting incidence of cancer. This continuous increase in the number of cancer cases will keep its pace in the future. The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is forecast to be more than 50%.
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pure and applied geophysics, 1980
Recent advances in the use of dynamical and statistical models to forecast the weather are described. High resolution physical—mathematical models can now predict the development of synoptic weather systems in great detail for a few days ahead, while large-scale phenomena like blocking can be predicted for about a week or more.
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Recent advances in the use of dynamical and statistical models to forecast the weather are described. High resolution physical—mathematical models can now predict the development of synoptic weather systems in great detail for a few days ahead, while large-scale phenomena like blocking can be predicted for about a week or more.
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