UK Forecasts of Annual GDP: Their Accuracy and the Information Categories Underlying Their Revisions
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Policy makers are concerned with the accuracy of GDP forecasts and want to understand the reasons for the revision of forecasts. We study these issues by examining forecasts of annual UK GDP growth by a panel of agents, published monthly by HM Treasury. We focus on two main issues: the developing accuracy of the group‐mean forecast as horizons
Nigel Meade, Ciaran Driver
wiley +1 more source
Can the establishment of free trade zones promote the internationalization of enterprises? - Evidence from micro-enterprise level. [PDF]
PLoS OneZhang J, Wang H.
europepmc +1 more source
When Are Statistical Forecast Gains Economically Relevant? Evidence From Bitcoin Returns
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study how statistical forecast gains for Bitcoin translate into trading profits. Using real‐time out‐of‐sample forecasts from daily bivariate VARs from October 2021 to February 2024, we show that Bitcoin returns are forecastable and that seven predictive indices yield significant gains in directional accuracy (DA).
Rehan Arain, Stephen Snudden
wiley +1 more source
How has the global food governance system evolved, and what challenges does it currently pose for food systems transformation? A narrative review and synthesis of the literature. [PDF]
Global HealthSlater S +4 more
europepmc +1 more source
Enhancing Volatility Prediction: A Wavelet‐Based Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation Approach
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting realized volatility (RV) has been widely studied, with numerous techniques developed to enhance predictive accuracy. Among these techniques, the use of RV decompositions based on intraday asset returns has been applied. However, the use of a frequency‐based decomposition, which provides unique insights into the dynamics of RV ...
Adam Clements, Ajith Perera
wiley +1 more source
The spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of urban vitality in the border areas of China. [PDF]
PLoS OneAi F, Yang Q.
europepmc +1 more source
Food Safety and Health, EarlyView.This study assessed toxic metals in five dried marine fish species from Bangladesh. Although most metals were within safe limits, chromium (Cr) consistently exceeded FAO/WHO standards, especially at Kuakata Beach. The findings highlight localized contamination hotspots and species‐specific bioaccumulation, while risk assessment supports the safety and ...
Shapla Khatun +7 more
wiley +1 more source
Examining public support for Ukraine's defense against autocratic aggression. [PDF]
Nat CommunRudolph L, Haggerty F, Thurner PW.
europepmc +1 more source
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper examines how institutional environments shape the effectiveness of derivative hedging in reducing corporate default risk. Using hand‐collected data from non‐financial firms across nine European countries and various econometric methods to control for endogeneity, we provide novel evidence that the risk‐reducing benefits of ...
Amrit Judge, Khai Le, Kim Ly
wiley +1 more source
The Dollar's Double Life: Not All Dollar Appreciations Are Born Equal for the Cross‐Currency Basis
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper revisits the relationship between the US dollar and cross‐currency basis (XCB) swap spreads. We show that the strength and direction of this relationship depend on the prevailing regime of the broad dollar. The evidence suggests that the well‐documented “dollar appreciates, basis widens” result holds primarily when the dollar is in ...
Daniel Felix Ahelegbey +2 more
wiley +1 more source