Results 61 to 70 of about 4,394 (252)
Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.This study explores how the atmospheric state at initialisation creates windows of opportunity for improving week 3 forecasts of weather regime activity. Greenland blocking activity increases following Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 7, 8, and 1 and weak stratospheric polar vortex states, revealing patterns exploitable by statistical models.
Fabian Mockert +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley +1 more source
Study of Some Patterns for Severe Rainfalls Over Iraq
Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2020 Study of rain received particularly great importance in the areas described as semi-arid, which is on the other hand are not well prepared for the drainage of rain that may turned into flash floods.
Yaser Ali Shaghati
doaj +1 more source
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.The predictability of western and eastern North Pacific blocking events is assessed using analogue‐based diagnostics. Eastern blocks exhibit lower predictability, characterized by faster error growth and higher mean logarithmic divergence rates. The study highlights geographical contrasts in blocking stability.
Anupama K. Xavier +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.Short‐term extreme rainfall can be produced by the variation of low‐level warm moist airflow during mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) approaching another. The cold outflow of the rapidly moving MCS intensifies the warm moist airflow in front, enhancing the convergence and ascending motion in the quasi‐stationary MCS.
Xiaoyu Gao +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Heat stress in tropical highland regions: the case of Kenya during February 2024
Weather, EarlyView.Understanding and awareness about heat stress remain low in sub‐Saharan countries despite high exposure and vulnerability. After the national media in Kenya reported that people had complained about unusual heat stress during February 2024, we combine in situ and reanalysis data to (i) put this event into climatological perspective, and (ii) give ...
G. Chagnaud +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Probability forecasts – Part 1: ensembles and probabilistic forecasts
Weather, EarlyView.Ensemble weather forecasts have been in use for many years to help forecasters understand uncertainty in weather predictions but are now becoming core to some operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. Ensembles offer greater predictive skill and information content than deterministic forecasts but are more complex to interpret and ...
Ken Mylne
wiley +1 more source
The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution
Weather, EarlyView.Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned storyline approaches. Advancing the field now requires combining results from multiple methods, allowing more robust conclusions drawing from various lines of ...
Vikki Thompson +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Determination of the geopotential value on the permanent GNSS stations in Vietnam based on the Geodetic Boundary Value Problem approach [PDF]
, 2021 D.T. Vu +4 more
openalex +1 more source
Extreme rainfall in Madeira: the June 2023 weather event
Weather, EarlyView.This study investigates the meteorological conditions behind the extreme precipitation event on 6 June 2023 over Madeira Island, Portugal. The event set a national daily record of 497.5mm and was unusual for occurring in early summer, as most extremes in the region occur in winter.
Tiago M. Ferreira +5 more
wiley +1 more source