Results 1 to 10 of about 3,036,284 (328)
Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation [PDF]
Journal of Economic Structures, 2019 In this article, we provide new, novel evidence for a more recent structural break (in 2010) indicating a greater moderation of output volatility compared to the well-known break during the mid-1980s. The period of analysis runs from 1962Q2 to 2018Q3. It
Hasan Engin Duran
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America's First Great Moderation [PDF]
The Journal of Economic History, 2016 We identify the longest expansion in U.S. history, a recession-free 16-year period from 1841 to 1856 that we call America's First Great Moderation. Using newer data on industrial production, we show that the record-long expansion was primarily driven by a boom in transportation-goods investment following the discovery of gold in California. Furthermore,
Joseph H. Davis, Marc Weidenmier
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The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great? [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015 The Great Moderation (GM) is widely documented in the literature as one of the most important changes in the US business cycle. All the papers that analyze it use post WWII data. In this paper, for the first time we place the GM in a long historical perspective, stretching back a century and a half, which includes secular changes in the economic ...
María Dolores Gadea Rivas +2 more
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Great volatility, great moderation and great moderation again [PDF]
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2021 Abstract We investigate the sources of changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2018. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility.
J. Grazzini, D. Massaro
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Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation [PDF]
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2020 The interferences among some financial, economic and monetary variables are checked as an indicator of economic performance in the long run and for the monetary policy applied between the Great Moderation (GM) of 1987-2001 and the Global Financial Crisis
Guillermo Peña
semanticscholar +5 more sources
The Great Happiness Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 This paper shows that within-country happiness inequality has fallen in the majority of countries that have experienced positive income growth over the last forty years, in particular in developed countries. This new stylized fact comes as an addition to the Easterlin paradox, which states that the time trend in average happiness is flat during ...
Andrew E. Clark +2 more
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High-Growth Recoveries, Inventories and the Great Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009 We present evidence about the disappearance of the high-growth recoveries from recessions with intense job creation typically observed until the eighties. This result matches the belief that recessions now have an L-shape as opposed to the old-time recessions that always had a V-shape. We also show how this change in business cycle dynamics can explain
Máximo Camacho +2 more
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Quantitative Economics, 2023 We estimate sectoral spillovers around the Great Moderation with the help of forecast error variance decomposition tables. Obtaining such tables in high dimensions is challenging because they are functions of the estimated vector autoregressive ...
Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp
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Great Moderation and Great Recession: From Plain Sailing to Stormy Seas? [PDF]
International Economic Review, 2018 Many have argued that the Great Recession of 2008 marks the end of the Great Moderation of the eighties and nineties. This paper shows this is not the case through painstaking empirical analysis of the data.
M. Gadea +2 more
semanticscholar +3 more sources
Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence [PDF]
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008 The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier, 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth was comparable to that of 1984.
James M. Nason, Gregor W. Smith
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