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Learning and the Great Moderation [PDF]
International Economic Review, 2007 We study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the U.S. after 1984—the Great Moderation—which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of Bayesian households ...
Aarti Singh, James B. Bullard
core +12 more sources
The Great Happiness Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 This paper shows that within-country happiness inequality has fallen in the majority of countries that have experienced positive income growth over the last forty years, in particular in developed countries. This new stylized fact comes as an addition to
Clark, Andrew E. +2 more
core +14 more sources
Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 Why did the volatility of U.S. real GDP decline by more than the volatility of final sales with the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s? One possible explanation is that firms shifted their inventory behaviour towards a greater emphasis on production ...
Morley, James, Singh, Aarti
core +7 more sources
VAR analysis and the Great Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008 Most analyses of the U.S. Great Moderation have been based on structural VAR methods, and have consistently pointed towards good luck as the main explanation for the greater macroeconomic stability of recent years.
Benati, Luca, Surico, Paolo
core +5 more sources
Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks [PDF]
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008 This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.
Giannone, Domenico +2 more
core +7 more sources
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007 A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data and find significant ...
Howard J. Wall +2 more
core +8 more sources
The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance [PDF]
, 2006 The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macro-economy: the fall in US business cycle volatility (the "great moderation") and the large and persistent US external imbalance.
Alessandra Fogli, Fabrizio Perri
core +6 more sources
Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008 This paper examines the "bad luck" explanation for changing volatility in U.S. inflation and output when agents do not have rational expectations, but instead form expectations through least squares learning with an endogenously changing learning gain ...
James Murray
core +4 more sources
Great volatility, great moderation and great moderation again [PDF]
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2022 Abstract We investigate the sources of changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2018. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility.
Grazzini J., Massaro D.
openaire +3 more sources
On the Sources of the Great Moderation [PDF]
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2006 The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks.
Jordi Galí, Luca Gambetti
openaire +8 more sources