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The Great Moderation and the US External Imbalance [PDF]

open access: possibleMonetary and Economic Studies, 2006
The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macroeconomy: the fall in U.S. business cycle volatility (the “great moderation”) and the large and persistent U.S. external imbalance. In this paper, we argue that an external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation.
Alessandra Fogli, Fabrizio Perri
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Great Moderation in the Japanese economy

Japan and the World Economy, 2013
Abstract This paper investigates the contribution of technology and nontechnology shocks to the changing volatility of output and labor growth in the postwar Japanese economy. A time-varying vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities is modeled and long-run restriction is used to identify technology shocks in ...
Jun-Hyung Ko, Koichi Murase
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Understanding the international great moderation [PDF]

open access: possible, 2008
The majority of OECD countries has experienced a reduction in macroeconomic volatility during the last two decades. This period is also characterized by a gradual liberalization of the capital accounts in these countries. We first show that, on average, countries/periods with more open capital markets are associated with lower macroeconomic volatility.
Vincenzo Quadrini, Fabrizio Perri
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JOSEPH SCHUMPETER LECTURE THE GREAT MODERATION, THE GREAT PANIC, AND THE GREAT CONTRACTION

Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010
This lecture examines the causes of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession. On the macroeconomic side, the Great Moderation encouraged an overly optimistic assessment of risk. Combined with low interest rates, reflecting both loose monetary policy and relatively high Asian savings rates, that encouraged a build-up of excessive leverage in
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The Great Moderation and Israel’s Disinflation

2018
Big drivers of domestic inflation, as they formulated in the Phillips Curve, are: (1) The price of imports and the exchange rate; (2) capacity pressures and labor market tightness in the domestic economy; (3) Public expectations about future inflation, future exchange rates, and future foreign prices; and (4) The amount of trading world slack.
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