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Great moderation with Chinese characteristics: Uncovering the role of monetary policy
Economic Modelling, 2023Weihong Sun, Ding Liu
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The Great Moderation and the US External Imbalance [PDF]
The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macroeconomy: the fall in U.S. business cycle volatility (the “great moderation”) and the large and persistent U.S. external imbalance. In this paper, we argue that an external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation.
Alessandra Fogli, Fabrizio Perri
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Great Moderation in the Japanese economy
Japan and the World Economy, 2013Abstract This paper investigates the contribution of technology and nontechnology shocks to the changing volatility of output and labor growth in the postwar Japanese economy. A time-varying vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities is modeled and long-run restriction is used to identify technology shocks in ...
Jun-Hyung Ko, Koichi Murase
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Understanding the international great moderation [PDF]
The majority of OECD countries has experienced a reduction in macroeconomic volatility during the last two decades. This period is also characterized by a gradual liberalization of the capital accounts in these countries. We first show that, on average, countries/periods with more open capital markets are associated with lower macroeconomic volatility.
Vincenzo Quadrini, Fabrizio Perri
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JOSEPH SCHUMPETER LECTURE THE GREAT MODERATION, THE GREAT PANIC, AND THE GREAT CONTRACTION
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010This lecture examines the causes of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession. On the macroeconomic side, the Great Moderation encouraged an overly optimistic assessment of risk. Combined with low interest rates, reflecting both loose monetary policy and relatively high Asian savings rates, that encouraged a build-up of excessive leverage in
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The Great Moderation and Israel’s Disinflation
2018Big drivers of domestic inflation, as they formulated in the Phillips Curve, are: (1) The price of imports and the exchange rate; (2) capacity pressures and labor market tightness in the domestic economy; (3) Public expectations about future inflation, future exchange rates, and future foreign prices; and (4) The amount of trading world slack.
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Identification of business cycles and the Great Moderation in the post-war U.S. economy
, 2020Yu Jiang
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Explaining the Great Moderation Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle
IMF Economic ReviewVania Stavrakeva, Jenny Tang
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Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation
, 2018P. Sephton, J. Mann
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