Results 61 to 70 of about 327 (141)

A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 1: Dynamical model guidance

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2023
This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change from the operational perspective, as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs (IWTC-10) held in Bali, Indonesia, from Dec. 5–9, 2022.
Zhan Zhang, Weiguo Wang, James D. Doyle, Jonathan Moskaitis, William A. Komaromi, Julian Heming, Linus Magnusson, John P. Cangialosi, Levi Cowan, Michael Brennan, Suhong Ma, Ananda Kumar Das, Hosomi Takuya, Peter Clegg, Thomas Birchard, John A. Knaff, John Kaplan, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Monica Sharma, Ikegami Masaaki, Liguang Wu, Eric Blake   +21 more
doaj   +1 more source

Meteorologically‐Informed Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, Volume 2, Issue 4, December 2025.
Abstract Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely on static parameterization schemes, which limits their ability to capture the non‐stationary error structure in the ...
Xuepeng Chen, Jing‐Jia Luo, Qingqing Li, Fan Meng   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Study on the Asymmetric Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Using the HWRF System

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2015
Abstract In this study, the results of a forecast from the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system for Hurricane Earl (2010) are verified against observations and analyzed to understand the asymmetric rapid intensification of a storm in a sheared environment.
Hua Chen, Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan
openaire   +1 more source

Advancing the State of the Art in Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting at Ncep

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2018
: Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) are now used for tropical ...
Avichal Mehra, Vijay Tallapragada, Zhan Zhang, Bin Liu, Lin Zhu, Weiguo Wang, Hyun-Sook Kim   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

Impact of subgrid‐scale processes on eyewall replacement cycle of tropical cyclones in HWRF system [PDF]

Geophysical Research Letters, 2015
AbstractTwo idealized simulations by the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model are presented to examine the impact of model physics on the simulated eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). While no ERC is produced in the control simulation that uses the operational HWRF physics, the sensitivity experiment with different model physics generates ...
Ping Zhu, Zhenduo Zhu, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Robert Black, Frank D. Marks, Vijay Tallapragada, Jun A. Zhang, Xuejin Zhang, Cen Gao   +8 more
openaire   +1 more source

Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction in Tropical Cyclone Intensification [PDF]

, 2020
Producing timely and accurate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts remains one of the most difficult challenges facing meteorologists today. The state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) full physics operational models, in particular, have problems in
Yang, Zongyao
core   +1 more source

Do Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Forecasts Improve Simultaneously With Intensity Forecasts?

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 52, Issue 20, 28 October 2025.
Abstract The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) is important for predicting potential damage caused by the storm, yet improving the size forecast remains challenging. This study evaluates the TC intensity and outer size forecast performance of five numerical models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based on 15 ...
Jie Chen, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, Timothy Marchok   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Comparison of HWRF Six-Hourly 4DEnVar and Hourly 3DEnVar Assimilation of Inner Core Tail Dopper Radar Observations for the Prediction of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Atmosphere, 2021
Six-hourly three-dimensional ensemble variational (3DEnVar) (6H-3DEnVar) data assimilation (DA) assumes constant background error covariance (BEC) during a six-hour DA window and is, therefore, unable to account for temporal evolution of the BEC.
Benjamin Davis, Xuguang Wang, Xu Lu
doaj   +1 more source

Cost‐Effective Convective‐Scale Static Background‐Error Covariances: Methodology and Experiment in RRFS Hybrid EnVar System for Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Over the CONUS

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Volume 17, Issue 10, October 2025.
Abstract This study proposes a cost‐effective convective‐scale static background‐error covariance matrix (CSS B) approach and evaluates the approach for direct radar reflectivity data assimilation (DA) using the Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere limited‐area model (FV3‐LAM)‐based DA system.
Yue Yang, Xuguang Wang, Yongming Wang
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting of tropical cyclones ASANI (2022) and MOCHA (2023) over the Bay of Bengal - real time challenges to forecasters

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
This study examines the track and intensity forecasts of two typical Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones (TC) ASANI and MOCHA. The analysis of various Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts [ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Weather ...
S.D. Kotal, T. Arulalan, M. Mohapatra
doaj   +1 more source