Results 61 to 70 of about 13,836,528 (157)

Meteorologically‐Informed Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, Volume 2, Issue 4, December 2025.
Abstract Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely on static parameterization schemes, which limits their ability to capture the non‐stationary error structure in the ...
Xuepeng Chen, Jing‐Jia Luo, Qingqing Li, Fan Meng   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2019
Sea surface temperature (SST) varies significantly in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using fixed SST throughout the integration of high resolution TC models is general practice in research and operational endeavor over the North Indian Ocean ...
Shyama Mohanty, Raghu Nadimpalli, Krishna K. Osuri, Sujata Pattanayak, U.C. Mohanty, Sourav Sil   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

A Developmental Framework for Improving Hurricane Model Physical Parameterizations Using Aircraft Observations

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2012
: As part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), this paper addresses the important role of aircraft observations in hurricane model physics validation and improvement.
Jun A. Zhang, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Frank D. Marks, Robert F. Rogers, Vijay Tallapragada   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Challenges and Opportunities with New Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Datasets for Analyses and Initial Conditions for Forecasting Hurricane Irma (2017) Rapid Intensification Event

Atmosphere, 2020
This study utilizes an extremely high spatial resolution GOES-16 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) dataset processed at 15 min intervals in a modified version of our original dynamic initialization technique to analyze and forecast a rapid intensification (
Russell L. Elsberry, Joel W. Feldmeier, Hway-Jen Chen, Melinda Peng, Christopher S. Velden, Qing Wang   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

The Impact of Assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager Clear-Sky Radiance on Numerical Simulations of Hurricanes Joaquin (2015) and Matthew (2016) with the HWRF Model [PDF]

Monthly Weather Review, 2019
The impact of assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) clear-sky radiance on the track and intensity forecasts of two Atlantic hurricanes during the 2015 and 2016 hurricane seasons is assessed using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model.
Zhaoxia Pu, Chaulam Yu, Vijay Tallapragada, Jianjun Jin, Will McCarty   +4 more
openaire   +1 more source

Do Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Forecasts Improve Simultaneously With Intensity Forecasts?

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 52, Issue 20, 28 October 2025.
Abstract The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) is important for predicting potential damage caused by the storm, yet improving the size forecast remains challenging. This study evaluates the TC intensity and outer size forecast performance of five numerical models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based on 15 ...
Jie Chen, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, Timothy Marchok   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Cost‐Effective Convective‐Scale Static Background‐Error Covariances: Methodology and Experiment in RRFS Hybrid EnVar System for Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Over the CONUS

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Volume 17, Issue 10, October 2025.
Abstract This study proposes a cost‐effective convective‐scale static background‐error covariance matrix (CSS B) approach and evaluates the approach for direct radar reflectivity data assimilation (DA) using the Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere limited‐area model (FV3‐LAM)‐based DA system.
Yue Yang, Xuguang Wang, Yongming Wang
wiley   +1 more source

Implementation and Evaluation of Storm‐Following 3DIAU for Hurricane Intensity Prediction Improvements in Operational HAFS

Earth and Space Science, Volume 12, Issue 10, October 2025.
Abstract Accurate hurricane intensity prediction remains a critical challenge in numerical weather prediction (NWP). This study implements and evaluates a newly developed Storm‐Following Three‐Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update (3DIAU) methodology for high‐resolution regional hurricane models with storm‐following nest capabilities.
Xu Lu, Yonghui Weng, Bin Liu, Zhan Zhang, Xuguang Wang, Jing Cheng, Shun Liu, Daryl Kleist, Vijay Tallapragada   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Three-Stage Deep Learning Framework for Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction remains challenging, as numerical models suffer from high computational cost, substantial storage requirements, and physical parameterization uncertainties, while data-driven large AI models depend heavily ...
Haocheng Shi, Dan Song, Guijing Yang, Longyu Jiang, Xuezhu Wang, Shuangyan He   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

Advancing Hurricane Forecasting With AI Models for Track and Intensity Prediction

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Volume 17, Issue 9, September 2025.
Abstract Hurricane forecasting has traditionally relied on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) offer new opportunities to improve forecasting accuracy. This study presents a novel evaluation of the FourCastNet model, trained on MERRA‐2 and ERA5 data sets. We perform a comprehensive comparison
Kumar Ankur, Sujit Roy, Christopher E. Phillips, Udaysankar Nair, Manil Maskey, Rahul Ramachandran   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source