Results 241 to 250 of about 67,338 (298)

Forecasting With Machine Learning Shadow‐Rate VARs

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Interest rates are fundamental in macroeconomic modeling. Recent studies integrate the effective lower bound (ELB) into vector autoregressions (VARs). This paper studies shadow‐rate VARs by using interest rates as a latent variable near the ELB to estimate their shadow‐rate values.
Michael Grammatikopoulos
wiley   +1 more source

Optimal Variance Forecasting in a Trading Context

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In financial trading, the economic value of return and variance forecasts arises from three key components: an investor's risk preference, the quality of return predictions, and the accuracy of risk estimates. This study isolates the third component—risk knowledge—and demonstrates that its contribution is a non‐linear function of realized and ...
Nick Taylor
wiley   +1 more source

Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley   +1 more source

Managers' Decisions About Informal Accommodation Requests by Employees With and Without Disabilities

open access: yesHuman Resource Management, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Although formal accommodations are required by law across many jurisdictions, many employees seek informal adjustments to their work conditions. These individualized work arrangements are not rooted in legal compliance but are instead provided at managers' discretion.
Silvia Bonaccio   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

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