Results 1 to 10 of about 92,205 (30)
A Discrimination Report Card [PDF]
Social Science Research Network, 2023 We develop an empirical Bayes ranking procedure that assigns ordinal grades to noisy measurements, balancing the information content of the assigned grades against the expected frequency of ranking errors.
Patrick M. Kline +2 more
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Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails [PDF]
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021 With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed and heavy tailed.
Sune Karlsson, S. Mazur, Hoang Nguyen
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Impulse response estimation via flexible local projections [PDF]
Social Science Research Network, 2022 This paper introduces a flexible local projection that generalises the model by Jordà (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
Haroon Mumtaz, Michele Piffer
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Market Premia for Renewables in Germany: The Effect on Electricity Prices
Social Science Research Network, 2022 Due to the growing share of ”green” electricity generated by renewable energy technologies, the frequency of negative price spikes has substantially increased in Germany.
M. Frondel +2 more
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The Power of Text-based Indicators in Forecasting the Italian Economic Activity
Social Science Research Network, 2021 Can we use newspaper articles to forecast economic activity? Our answer is yes and, to this aim, we propose a brand new economic dictionary in Italian with valence shifters, and we apply it on a corpus of about two million articles from four popular ...
Valentina Aprigliano +5 more
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Information Validates the Prior: A Theorem on Bayesian Updating and Applications [PDF]
American Economic Review: Insights, 2020 We develop a result on expected posteriors for Bayesians with heterogenous priors, dubbed information validates the prior (IVP). Under familiar ordering requirements, Anne expects a (Blackwell) more informative experiment to bring Bob’s posterior mean ...
N. Kartik, F. Lee, Wing Suen
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A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys
Social Science Research Network, 2022 We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether US Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy ...
Marco Del Negro, R. Casarin, F. Bassetti
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Learning about profitability and dynamic cash management
Journal of Economics Theory, 2022 We study a dynamic model of a firm whose shareholders learn about its profitability, face costs of external financing and costs of holding cash. The shareholders’ problem involves a notoriously challenging singular stochastic control problem with a two ...
J. Décamps, Stéphane Villeneuve
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Social Science Research Network, 2008 In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff.
K. Christoffel, G. Coenen, A. Warne
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Profit Efficiency as a Measure of Performance and Frontier Models: A Resource-Based View
, 2020 Although the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm is one of the most accepted theories of strategic management, it has been criticized for its limited empirical support.
A. Arbelo +2 more
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