Results 1 to 10 of about 74,665 (42)
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
The American Economic Review, 2020 We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions.
P. Bordalo +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Social Science Research Network, 2023 IZA DP No. 16426 SEPTEMBER 2023 Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers* Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the ...
Gerard J. van den Berg +4 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The American Economic Review, 2016 We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth ...
Tobias Adrian +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium
EconomiA, 2023 This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004–2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such a relationship depends on the term premium.
Raul Ibarra
semanticscholar +1 more source
Ex Ante Predictability of Rapid Growth: A Design Science Approach
Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice, 2022 We examine how machine learning (ML) predictions of high-growth enterprises (HGEs) help a budget-constrained venture capitalist source investments for a fixed size portfolio.
Ari Hyytinen +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series, 2020 Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future ...
Lukas Hoesch +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The American Economic Review, 2018 We develop an equivalence between the equilibrium effects of incomplete information and those of two behavioral distortions: myopia, or extra discounting of the future; and anchoring of current behavior to past behavior, as in models with habit ...
G. Angeletos, Zhengxin Huo
semanticscholar +1 more source
An Inflation-Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area
Social Science Research Network, 2016 Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features of the model,
Marek Jarociński, M. Lenza
semanticscholar +1 more source
Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth
Social Science Research Network, 2008 Global financial integration unlocks a huge potential for international risk sharing. We examine the degree to which international equity holdings act as a risk sharing device in industrial and emerging economies.
E. Angelini +4 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
IMF Working Papers, 2022 The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing ...
Karim Barhoumi +6 more
semanticscholar +1 more source