Results 1 to 10 of about 74,925 (21)
Monetary-Based Asset Pricing: A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach
Social Science Research Network, 2022 We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why markets react to ...
F. Bianchi, S. Ludvigson, Sai Ma
semanticscholar +1 more source
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
The American Economic Review, 2020 We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions.
P. Bordalo +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The American Economic Review, 2016 We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth ...
Tobias Adrian +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
Journal of Economic Literature, 2017 This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses.
Olivier Coibion +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk
Social Science Research Network, 2018 We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth—which we call growth-at ...
T. Adrian +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism
Social Science Research Network, 2018 Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later.
P. Beaudry, T. Willems
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Housing Market, Household Portfolios and the German Consumer
Social Science Research Network, 2016 House price booms in Anglo-Saxon economies and their collapse were an important part of the financial accelerator via consumption, construction and the banking system.
Felix Geiger +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Asset Dynamics, Liquidity, and Inequality in Decentralized Markets
Economic Inquiry, 2018 The Kiyotaki and Wright model has exerted a considerable influence on the monetary search literature. We argue that the model also delivers important insights into a broader range of macroeconomic and development issues.
M. Iacopetta, R. Minetti
semanticscholar +1 more source
, 2016 To deal with mass unemployment the French government has chosen to favour a supply-side policy. Using the OFCE?s macroeconomic model for the French economy e-mod.fr , we evaluate the effects of the ?CICE? and the ?Pacte de responsabilite?
Bruno Ducoudré, Éric Heyer, M. Plane
semanticscholar +1 more source
Learning about Wage and Price Mark-Ups in Euro Area Countries
Social Science Research Network, 2013 In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB JEL Classification:
E. Angelini +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source