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The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements
The American Economic Review, 2021 This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks
D. Känzig
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Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks
, 2016 This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers,
J. Barrot, Julien Sauvagnat
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, 2019 This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing.
R. Shiller
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Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015 Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter?
S. Ludvigson +3 more
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The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
The American Economic Review, 2018 We study how monetary policy in China influences banks’ shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993).
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, Tao Zha
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The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany
Social Science Research Network, 2022 We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns.
Johannes F. Schmieder +2 more
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American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2020 Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity.
M. Greenstone +2 more
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A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019 This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB).
Gauti B. Eggertsson +2 more
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Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts
Kredit und Kapital, 2000 We formulate an optimizing-agent model in which both labor and product markets exhibit monopolistic competition and staggered nominal contracts. The unconditional expectation of average household utility can be expressed in terms of the unconditional ...
C. Erceg +2 more
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Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2019 A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region of a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated.
Gabriel Chodorow-reich
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