Results 11 to 20 of about 81,666 (45)
The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions
The American Economic Review, 2023 This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between workers' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and ...
Christina Patterson
semanticscholar +1 more source
Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019 We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop, and estimate a model with an endogenous
D. Anzoategui +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsWe measure the aggregate effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment and the labor force. We exploit the variation induced by Congress' failure in December 2013 to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great ...
Marcus Hagedorn, I. Manovskii, K. Mitman
semanticscholar +1 more source
Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation
Social Science Research Network, 2023 Do politics matter for macroprudential policies? I show that changes in macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014.
Karsten Müller
semanticscholar +1 more source
Skill Remoteness and Post-Layoff Labor Market Outcomes
Social Science Research NetworkLocal skill remoteness captures the dissimilarity between the skill profiles of a worker’s last job and other jobs in a local labor market. Higher skill remoteness at layoff is associated with persistently lower earnings after layoff, a higher ...
Claudia Macaluso
semanticscholar +1 more source
Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019 We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014.
Yunus Aksoy +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Social Science Research NetworkWe show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach.
Christian Bayer +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks
Social Science Research NetworkWe solve a real business cycle model with rational inattention (an RI-RBC model). In the RI-RBC model, the growth rates of employment, investment, and output are about as persistent as in the data, with an amount of inattention consistent with survey ...
Bartosz Mackowiak, Mirko Wiederholt
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk
Social Science Research Network, 2018 We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth—which we call growth-at ...
T. Adrian +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment
European Journal of Political EconomyJEL codes: E32, E62, H62. Major economic downturns leave important scars on the path of economic expansion. Drawing on data of 26 OECD countries since 1970 we show that fiscal expansions can mitigate scarring effects provided they boost government ...
Martin Larch +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source