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The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements
The American Economic Review, 2018This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks
D. Känzig
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Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsI study how input-output linkages amplify the aggregate impact of sectoral financial distortions in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous capital wedges.
Hsuan-Li Su
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A Simple Explanation of Countercyclical Uncertainty
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsThis paper documents that labor search and matching frictions generate countercyclical uncertainty because the inherent nonlinearity in the flow of new matches makes employment uncertainty increasing in the number of people searching for work ...
J. Bernstein +3 more
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The Geography of Consumption and Local Economic Shocks: The Case of the Great Recession
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsWe estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States, providing a new consumption link that has not been studied previously.
Abe Dunn, M. Gholizadeh
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American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Using mobility report card data, I show the income gap between alumni of elite and less selective universities widened for cohorts graduating during the Great Recession.
Russell Weinstein
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Using mobility report card data, I show the income gap between alumni of elite and less selective universities widened for cohorts graduating during the Great Recession.
Russell Weinstein
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A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsWe propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning
George W. Evans +2 more
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The Ends of 27 Big Depressions
The American Economic ReviewHow did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures.
Martin Ellison +2 more
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Asymmetric Reciprocity and the Cyclical Behavior of Wages, Effort, and Job Creation
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsThis paper develops a search and matching framework in which workers are characterized by asymmetric reference-dependent reciprocity and firms set wages by considering the effect that these can have on workers’ effort and, therefore, on output.
Marco Fongoni
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Credit Supply Shocks and Prices: Evidence from Danish Firms
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsWe study the response of firms’ output prices to a cut in credit supply. We combine data on loans between Danish firms and banks with survey-based producer prices and transaction-based export unit values.
Tobias Renkin, Gabriel Züllig
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The Consumption Origins of Business Cycles: Lessons from Sectoral Dynamics
American Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsWe measure the impact of household consumption shocks on aggregate fluctuations. These shocks affect household consumption directly, and production and prices indirectly through their impact on aggregate consumption.
Christian Matthes, Felipe Schwartzman
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